Sunitsko-šiitski raskol i njegove posledice na bezbednost u regionu Bliskog istoka
The Sunni- Shi`a split and its effects on the security in region of the Middle East
Author
Todorović, Dragan V.Mentor
Simić, DraganCommittee members
Simić, DraganJevtić, Miroljub
Božović, Rade
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Sunitsko-šiitski raskol je najduži i najvažniji raskol unutar muslimanske zajednice, nastao
pre četrnaest vekova kao posledica neslaganja oko toga ko treba na čelu muslimanske
zajednice da nasledi proroka Muhameda. Inicijalno nastao kao političko neslaganje, tokom
vremena je prerastao u sukob između dve najveće grane islama, sunita i šiita. Svih proteklih
četrnaest vekova taj sukob traje, menjajući samo neposredne i posredne aktere, načine i
stepen sukobljavanja, ali do danas nije razrešen.
Raskol između većinskih sunita i manjinskih šiita ekstremno je pojačan od 1979. godine,
kada je na čelo Irana došao imam Ruholah Homeini, čime je stvorena prva savremena
šiitska država. To je bilo doba previranja u regionu Bliskog istoka, promene balansa snaga
među regionalnim i međunarodnim akterima uključenim u dešavanja na Bliskom istoku, jer
je te iste godine na vlast u Iraku došao Sadam Husein, a Sovjetski Savez je okupirao
Avganistan. Eskalacija u sunitsko-šiitskim odnosima od te 1979. godine,... dobija novu
dimenziju zbog talasanja koje je Islamska revolucija izazvala u svim sredinama na Bliskom
istoku u kojima žive šiitske zajednice.
Od tog vremena, odnosi između Saudijske Arabije kao vodeće sunitske i Irana kao šiitske
države, predstavljaju paradigmu sunitsko-šiitskog sukoba na Bliskom istoku. Isto tako, od
tog vremena bezbednost u regionu Bliskog istoka dobija novu dimenziju i počinje
neposredno da zavisi od odnosa snaga između Rijada i Teherana, ali i odnosa u trouglu
Vašington-Rijad-Teheran.
Američka okupacija Iraka 2003. godine i svrgavanje sunitskog režima Sadama Huseina,
dodatno su zakomplikovali sunitsko-šiitske odnose i na duže staze ugrozili bezbednost
regiona, da bi od izbijanja Arapskog proleća 2010-2011. godine, problem sunitsko-šiitskih
odnosa do danas postao najvažnija tema Bliskog istoka, bacajući u senku sva druga pitanja,
ali izbacivši u prvi plan i jačanje terorističkog pokreta u regionu, oličenog u Islamskoj
državi u Iraku i Levantu.
Početkom 2016. godine, stanje u sunitsko-šiitskim odnosima je komplikovanije nego što je
ikad bilo, a bezbednost na Bliskom istoku nikada na ovako niskom nivou.
The Sunni – Shi`a split, which came about fourteen centuries ago as a disagreement on who
should inherit the Prophet Mohammad as head of the Muslim community, has been the
longest and most significant divide within the Muslim community. The split, initially of a
political nature, has grown over time into a conflict between the two largest branches of
Islam – the Sunni and the Shi`a. In the past fourteen centuries, only the participants, both
active and passive, the manner and degree of warfare have changed, yet the conflict
remains unresolved to this day.
The split between the majority – the Sunnis, and the minority – the Shi`as, has worsened
drastically since 1979, when Ruholah Homeini began his rule in Iran, thus forming the first
modern Shi`a state. This was a time of turmoil in the Middle East, a time of change in the
balance of power among the regional and international participants involved in events that
were unfolding in the Middle East, as that same year Saddam Hussein became ...President of
Iraq and the USSR occupied Afghanistan. The escalation in the Sunni-Shi`a relationship
was given a new dimension since 1979, due to the tumult caused by the Islamic Revolution
throughout the Shi`a populated regions of the Middle East.
Since then, the relationship between Saudi Arabia – the leading Sunni state – and Iran – the
leading Shi`a state – has served as a paradigm of the Sunni-Shi`a conflict in the Middle
East. Likewise, it is from that time that security in the Middle East gained a new dimension
and became directly dependent on the relations between Riyadh and Teheran, but also the
relations in the Washington-Riyadh-Teheran triangle.
The American occupation of Iraq in 2003 and the overthrowing of Saddam Hussein’s Sunni
regime further complicated the Sunni-Shi`a relations and caused long-term damage to the
region’s security. The Sunni-Shi`a issue has become the most relevant one in the Middle
East since the start of the Arab Spring in 2010-2011, thus overshadowing all other issues
yet also bringing to the forefront the strengthening of the terrorist movement in the region
known as the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant.
The state of the Sunni-Shi`a relationship at the beginning of 2016 is as complex as ever,
and security in the Middle East at a historical low.