Uticaj međunarodnog kretanja proizvodnih faktora na dohodovnu nejednakost u procesu ekonomske integracije

Abstract

Tokom protekle tri decenije odigrale su se značajne transformacije u bivšim evropskim komunističkim zemljama koje su za rezultat imale njihovu integraciju u globalnu ekonomiju i povećanje životnog standarda. Međutim, prvih nekoliko godina tranzicije ka tržišnoj privredi praćeno je drastičnim padom autputa, porastom nezaposlenosti, visokom inflacijom i porastom nejednakosti. Smanjenje dohodovnih nejednakosti jedno je najvažnijih ekonomskih i političkih pitanja u Evropi, budući da se ona sastoji od heterogenih zemalja koje odlikuju dispariteti u dohotku per capita. Polazeći od relevantnih ekonomskih teorija i rezultata prethodno sprovedenih empirijskih istraživanja, u radu je analiziran uticaj koji međunarodno kretanje proizvodnih faktora, u obliku međunarodnih migracija i kretanja stranih direktnih investicija, ima na dohodovnu nejednakost među i unutar tranzicionih zemalja u kontekstu evropskih ekonomskih integracija. Osnovni cilj empirijskog istraživanja je da se na bazi relevantne teorijsko-metodološke i empirijske analize, ispita uticaj međunarodnih migracija i stranih direktnih investicija na nivo dohodovne nejednakosti u i među tranzicionim zemljama koje su pristupile Evropskoj uniji, CIE-11 i zemljama Zapadnog Balkana. Osim ispitivanja prethodno pomenutog efekta, u radu je analiziran i efekat međunarodnog kretanja faktora proizvodnje na dohodovnu konvergenciju evropskih tranzicionih zemalja (zemalja CIE11 i Zapadnog Balkana) ka dohotku ostvarenom u grupi EU-15. Rezultati regresionog panel modela pokazuju da ne postoji dugoročna konvergencija dohotka evropskih tranzicionih ekonomija u periodu od 1996. do 2020. godine, kao i u postkriznom periodu (2009-2020). S druge strane, u predkriznom periodu (1996-2008) postoji sustizanje dohotka razvijenih ekonomija EU-15 i smanjenje razlika u nivou razvijenosti između evropskih tranzicionih ekonomija, s jedne strane i razvijenih ekonomija EU, s druge strane. Takođe, rezultati potvrđuju pozitivan efekat stranih direktnih investicija na konvergenciju dohotka per capita u periodu 1997- 2019. godine i u predkriznom periodu (1997-2008), ali ne i u postkriznom periodu (2009-2019). Pozitivan i statistički značajan uticaj na konvergenciju dohotka imaju i međunarodne migracije u dve grupe zemalja CIE-11+Zapadni Balkan i CIE-11, dok statistički značajan uticaj u grupi zemalja Zapadni Balkan nije dokazan. Rezultati pokazuju da međunarodne migracije i strane direktne investicije doprinose smanjenju dohodovnih nejednakosti. Originalnost i doprinos ove doktorske disertacije se ogledaju u postavljanju i empirijskom testiranju kompleksnog i prilično široko obuhvaćenog problema, kao i generisanju korisnih empirijskih saznanja koja kreatorima ekonomske politike mogu poslužiti za smanjenje dohodovne nejednakosti i ostvarivanju brže konvergencije dohotka ka dohotku razvijenih zemalja Evropske unije.

Over the past three decades, significant transformations have taken place in the former European communist countries, resulting in their integration into the global economy and an increase in living standards. However, the first few years of the transition to a market economy have been accompanied by a drastic drop in outputs, rising unemployment, high inflation and rising inequality. Reducing income inequalities is one of the most important economic and political issues in Europe, as it consists of heterogeneous countries characterized by disparities in per capita income. Starting from relevant economic theories and the results of previously conducted empirical research, this doctoral thesis analyzes the impact that international movement of production factors, in the form of international migration and foreign direct investment, has on income inequality among and within transition countries in the context of еuropean economic integration. The main goal of the empirical research is to examine the impact of international migration and foreign direct investment on the level of income inequality in and among the transition countries that joined the European Union, new member states of EU (CEE-11) and the Western Balkans, based on relevant theoretical-methodological and empirical analysis. In addition to examining the previously mentioned effect, the paper also analyzes the effect of international movement of production factors on the income convergence of European transition countries (CEE-11 and Western Balkans) to income achieved in the EU-15 group. The results of the regression panel model show that there is no long-term convergence of incomes of European transition economies in the period from 1996 to 2020 and in the postcrisis period (2009-2020). On the other hand, in the pre-crisis period (1996-2008) it was proven that there was catching up with the income of developed economies in the EU-15 and reducing development disparities between European transition economies on the one hand and developed EU economies on the other. Also, based on the results, the positive effects of foreign direct investment on the income convergence were confirmed in the period 1997-2019 and in the pre-crisis period (1997-2008), but not in the post-crisis period (2009-2019). International migration in two groups of CEE-11 + Western Balkans and CEE-11 also has a positive and statistically significant impact on income convergence, while a statistically significant impact in the group of Western Balkan countries has not been proven. The results confirm that international migration and foreign direct investment contribute to reducing income inequalities. The originality and contribution of this doctoral dissertation is reflected in setting and empirically testing a complex and fairly broad problem, as well as generating useful empirical knowledge that can serve economic policy makers to reduce income inequality and achieve faster income convergence to income of developed EU countries.