Uticaj demografske promene starenja stanovništva na saobraćajno projektovanje urbanog saobraćajnog sistema

Abstract

Povećanje broja starijih ljudi predstavlja globalni demografski trend koji, zajedno sa urbanizacijom, donosi značajne promene u strukturi i karakteru saobraćajnih zahteva u naseljima i gradovima. Urbani saobraćajni sistemi, koji su pre svega u funkciji svojih korisnika, trebalo bi da ponude usluge koje zadovoljavaju kriterijume jednakosti i ravnopravnosti za sve učesnike. S obzirom na to da kretanje predstavlja jednu od osnovnih ljudskih potreba, jasno je da ono ne sme biti onemogućeno ili ograničeno neadekvatnim sistemskim performansama. Fenomen demografskog starenja inicirao je istraživački rad i aktivnosti koje se odnose na proučavanje uticaja ovih promena na saobraćajni proces, kao i mogućih rešenja ovog problema. Usled razlika koje postoje u karakteristikama saobraćajnih sistema i njihovih korisnika, rezultati istraživanja koja su već sprovedena i verifikovana u svetu ne mogu se jednostavno preslikati i implementirati, što je determinisalo potrebu za razmatranjem ovog problema u lokalnom urbanom okruženju. Polazeći od dosadašnjih iskustava i naučnog rada na ovom polju definisan je plan istraživanja koja je bilo neophodno realizovati da bi se adekvatno sagledala predmetna problematika. Istraživački rad je podeljen u tri celine: istraživanje karakteristika i stavova korisnika, istraživanje brzine kretanja i analiza bezbednosti starije populacije, sa posebno kreiranim metodološkim postupkom za svaki od planiranih segmenata. Fokus istraživanja bio je usmeren na one zahteve i modele koji utiču na proces i elemente saobraćajnog projektovanja u gradskim sredinama. Detaljniji uvid u poteškoće sa kojima se susreću stariji u saobraćaju pokazao je da ova starosna kategorija ima značajno veći rizik od stradanja u saobraćajnim nezgodama u poređenju sa ostalim, mlađim učesnicima u saobraćaju. Ustanovljeno je da su stariji pešaci u urbanim područjima saobraćajno najugroženija kategorija u okviru posmatrane populacije. Sa druge strane, rezultati stavova starijih korisnika pokazali da se najveći broj kretanja realizuje pešačenjem, pa su seniori pešaci stavljeni u centar istraživačkog rada. Brzina kretanja pešaka je jedan od najvažnijih projektnih i operativnih parametara koji mogu da utiču na konflikte između vozila i pešaka, bezbednost pešaka i nezgode na raskrsnicama. Svim pešacima, a posebno starijim, treba obezbediti dovoljno vremena da mogu bezbedno preći ulicu. Istraživanjem je utvrđeno da je prosečna brzina starijih pešaka prilikom prelaska ulice manja nego kod ostalih korisnika i da je neophodno preispitati i unaprediti postojeće modele inženjerskih proračuna...

The increasing number of older population represents a global demographic trend, as well as the growing density in urban areas. Ageing and urbanization introduce significant changes in the structure and character of traffic demands in modern cities. Urban traffic and transportation systems, which primarily exist for the purpose of their users, should offer the equality and equity of service for all participants in the transportation process. Bearing in mind that mobility represents one of the basic human needs, it is clear that it cannot be disabled or limited by inadequate system performances. This demographic shift has initiated research and activities related to the possible impact of these changes on the transportation process, as well as on the possible solutions to this problem. Due to the differences in the characteristics of transportation systems and their users, the results of research and studies that have already been implemented and verified in the world, cannot be easily replicated and implemented. There is the obvious need to consider this problem in the local urban surroundings. On the basis of previous experience and scientific work in the field, the research methodology was defined. The research plan was requisite in order to observe the issue in an adequate manner. The research was divided into three parts: research on the characteristics and users’ opinions, research on movement speed and the analysis of the safety of elderly population. Specifically defined and presented methodological procedure was created for each of the planned segments. The focus of the research was on those requirements and models that influence the process and elements of traffic design in urban areas. A more detailed insight into the difficulties faced by older road users showed that this age group had a higher risk of fatality in road accidents compared to younger road users. In urban areas older pedestrians represent the most vulnerable category of participants within the observed population. On the other hand, the results of elderly users' views show that the largest amount of movement of older pedestrians is implemented as pedestrian movement, so senior pedestrians were the focus of the research. The speed of a pedestrian is one of the most important design and operational parameters in traffic engineering which may lead to conflicts between vehicles and pedestrians, affect pedestrian safety, and cause accidents at intersections. All pedestrians, especially the elderly, should be provided with sufficient time for crossing the street safely. The results of this study showed that the average crossing speed of elderly pedestrians was lower than that of other users and that it was necessary to estimate the existing models of engineering calculations...