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Model assessment of economic and financial effects of the impact of natural disasters and mitigation opportunities in Serbia

dc.contributor.advisorDoroslovački, Rade
dc.contributor.advisorĐorđević, Dragomir
dc.contributor.otherVeselinović, Branislav
dc.contributor.otherAndrić, Mirko
dc.contributor.otherCarić, Marko
dc.contributor.otherDoroslovački, Rade
dc.contributor.otherĐorđević, Dragomir
dc.creatorПеровић, Милорад
dc.date.accessioned2018-04-11T12:27:02Z
dc.date.available2018-04-11T12:27:02Z
dc.date.available2020-07-03T18:19:46Z
dc.date.issued2018-03-02
dc.identifier.urihttps://www.cris.uns.ac.rs/DownloadFileServlet/Disertacija152024271528646.pdf?controlNumber=(BISIS)107169&fileName=152024271528646.pdf&id=11043&source=NaRDuS&language=srsr
dc.identifier.urihttp://nardus.mpn.gov.rs/handle/123456789/9307
dc.identifier.urihttps://www.cris.uns.ac.rs/record.jsf?recordId=107169&source=NaRDuS&language=srsr
dc.identifier.urihttps://www.cris.uns.ac.rs/DownloadFileServlet/IzvestajKomisije152024388290099.pdf?controlNumber=(BISIS)107169&fileName=152024388290099.pdf&id=11044&source=NaRDuS&language=srsr
dc.description.abstractU ovoj disertaciji obrađeno je nekoliko važnih pitanja vezanih za prirodne elementarne nepogode (neke s obeležjima katastrofa): Kako su te pojave tesno povezane sa razvojnim procesima? Kako gubici nakon ovih događaja utiču na ekonomski rast? Kako se odvijaju i koliko dugo traju različiti efekti negativnih posledica nakon događaja? Koje su karakteristike proteklih događaja i koje se pravilnosti mogu iz njih izvući? Mogu li teorijski modeli objasniti neke od ovih pravilnosti? Kako će se regionalna ekonomija ponašati posle ovih događaja? Koje su okolnosti pre događaja od presudnog značaja za objašnjenje činjenice da su neke zemlje postigle bolje rezultate nakon ovih događaja? Mogu li modeli da objasne različite oblike ponašanja nakon događaja? Mogu li odgovori na ova pitanja doprineti rešenju problema dvostrukog deficita u nerazvijenim i zemljama u razvoju (slučaj Republike Srbije)? Sa iznete tačke gledišta, svrha ove disertacije je dvostruka. S jedne strane, ona nastoji da otkrije empirijske pravilnosti u ponašanju ekonomija pogođenih prirodnim elementarnim nepogodama. S druge strane, razmatra i analizira različite modele za proučavanje efekata elementarnih nepogoda na ekonomiju da bi objasnila neke empirijske pravilnosti. Jedna od osnovnih poruka ove disertacije je da elementarne nepogode mogu izazvati veliki broj problema u kratkom roku nakon događaja. Međutim, efikasna politika obnove trebalo bi da pomogne ranjivim regionima u procesu smanjivanja stepena ugroženosti, odnosno da u dužem vremenskom periodu podigne nivo produktivnosti, a samim tim i njegov ekonomski potencijal. Da bi se postigao ovaj cilj, neophodno je efikasnost upravljanja elementarnim nepogodama direktno povezati sa razvojnim politikama. Većina dosadašnjih istraživanja posledica i uticaja elementarnih nepogoda na konkretnu ekonomiju, fokusirana su na njihovu vezu sa stopom rasta zanemarujući ulogu osiguranja u prenosu rizika. Ovde su dva zaključka bitna. Prvi se odnosi na stepen razumevanja ekonomskih i fiskalnih troškova nastalih kao posledica prirodnih nepogoda, a drugi na poznavanje metodologije ublažavanja visine ovih troškova. Postojeća literatura upravljanja posledicama elementarnih nepogoda ističe značaj finansijske spremnosti za ove situacije, ali je malo formalnih istraživanja o ulozi osiguranja u smanjenju njihovih ekonomskih i fiskalnih posledica. Pored iznetog, u ovoj disertaciji su analizirani veliki problemi za javne finansije i održivost javnog duga, koje uzrokuju prirodne nepogode. Naime, kada se dogodi elementarna nepogoda, javne finansije trpe dvostruki udarac: (a) umanjuje se ekonomska aktivnost; (b) smanjuju se tekući i budući poreski prihodi. Istovremeno, proširuju se izdaci izvršnih vlasti za finansiranje hitne humanitarne pomoći i početne obnove. Iako veličina fiskalnih efekata varira, kada su u pitanju različite statističke metode i vrste elementarnih nepogoda, uticaj ekstremnih događaja na budžet je obično znatan. Metodološki postupci analiziranja u ovoj disertaciji primenjeni su kroz četiri ključna fokusa, i to: (1) pokazatelji mikro nivoa ugroženosti (prisustvo neizvesnosti i razvojni procesi, uticaj razvoja na domaćinstva i nivo ugroženosti, stanje zdravlja, ishrana i obrazovanje); (2) uticaj elementarnih nepogoda na razvoj (efekti na makro nivou, uticaj na trgovinu i investicije, efekti na nivou domaćinstva, štednja i investicije, identifikovanje nivoa „izgubljenih“ dohodaka, objedinjavanje rizika i ujednačavanje potrošnje, uticaj na kapitalne investicije; (3) metode suočavanja sa rizicima (domaćinstva, regioni, seoska područja; dugoročni razvoj i rast); (4) pomoć za oporavak (pomoć na makro nivou, pomoć na mikro nivou, uloga i dometi ekonomske politike).sr
dc.description.abstractThis dissertation deals with several important issues related to natural disasters (some with attributes of a catastrophe): How closely are these phenomena linked to the development process? What effects these events have on economic growth? How long the effects of various negative consequences continue to go on after the event? What are the characteristics of these events and what regularities can be drawn from them? Can a theoretical models explain at least some of these regularities? How is the regional economy going to behave afterwards? What circumstances prior the events, are of crucial importance for explaining the fact that some countries have achieved better results after the event? Can theoretical models be used to explain the different forms of behavior after the event? Can answering these questions contribute to solving the "twin deficit" problem in underdeveloped and developing countries (case of Serbia)? From this view point, the purpose of the thesis is twofold. On the one hand, it seeks to reveal empirical regularities in the behavior of the economy affected by natural disasters. On the other hand, it deals with different models that examine natural disasters effects on the economy in order to explain empirical regularities. One of the key messages of this thesis is that natural disasters can cause a number of problems in the short term after the event. However, efficient reconstruction policy should help vulnerable regions in the process of reducing the threat degree, therefore raising the level of region's productivity in the long run, and because of it, it's economic potential. To achieve this goal, it is necessary to synthesize natural disasters management effectiveness directly to development policies. Most existing natural disaster researches of the influences and consequences on the specific economy, focus on it's growth rate ratio, ignoring the insurance risk transfer role. Two conclusions are essential here. The first relates to the degree of understanding the economic and fiscal costs incurred as a natural disaster outcome, and the second on the knowledge of methodologies to mitigate the cost level. The existing natural disaster management literature emphasizes the importance of financial readiness for these situations, but there is little formal research on the role of insurance in reducing their economic and fiscal consequences. In addition to the said, dissertation analyzes public finances sustainability and public debt issues caused by natural disasters as major problems. Namely, when a natural disaster occurs, public finances suffer a double blow: (a) reduced economic activity; (b) current and future tax revenue reduction. At the same time, government expenditure for the financing of emergency humanitarian assistance and initial reconstruction rise. Although the size of the fiscal effects vary when it comes to different statistical methods and types of natural disasters, the impact of extreme events on the budget is usually significant. The methodological analyses in this thesis were implemented through four key focuses, namely: (1) micro-level indicators of vulnerability (presence of uncertainty and development processes, the impact of developments in the household and the level of threat, state of health, nutrition and education); (2) the impact of natural disasters on development (effects on the macro level, the impact on trade and investment, the effects on the level of household savings and investments, identifying the level of 'lost' incomes, integration risks and consumption, the impact on capital investment; (3) methods of dealing with risks (insurance, loans and savings, households, regions, rural areas, long-term development and growth); (4) recovery assistance (assistance at the macro level, assistance at the micro level, the role and scope of economic policy).en
dc.languagesr (latin script)
dc.publisherУниверзитет Привредна академија у Новом Саду, Факултет за економију и инжењерски менаџментsr
dc.rightsopenAccessen
dc.sourceУниверзитет Привредна академија у Новом Садуsr
dc.subjectbudžetsr
dc.subjectBudgeten
dc.subjectpublic financesen
dc.subjectpublic debten
dc.subjectcrediten
dc.subjectnatural disastersen
dc.subjectgrowthen
dc.subjectdevelopment.en
dc.subjectjavne finansijesr
dc.subjectjavni dugsr
dc.subjectkreditsr
dc.subjectosiguranjesr
dc.subjectprirodne nepogodesr
dc.subjectrastsr
dc.subjectrazvoj.sr
dc.titleModel procene ekonomskih i finansijskih efekata uticaja prirodnih katastrofa i mogućnosti njihovog ublažavanja u Srbijisr
dc.title.alternativeModel assessment of economic and financial effects of the impact of natural disasters and mitigation opportunities in Serbiaen
dc.typedoctoralThesisen
dc.rights.licenseBY-NC
dcterms.abstractЂорђевић, Драгомир; Дорословачки, Раде; Веселиновић, Бранислав; Aндрић, Мирко; Царић, Марко; Дорословачки, Раде; Ђорђевић, Драгомир; Perović, Milorad; Модел процене економских и финансијских ефеката утицаја природних катастрофа и могућности њиховог ублажавања у Србији; Модел процене економских и финансијских ефеката утицаја природних катастрофа и могућности њиховог ублажавања у Србији;
dc.identifier.fulltexthttp://nardus.mpn.gov.rs/bitstream/id/59210/Disertacija.pdf
dc.identifier.fulltexthttp://nardus.mpn.gov.rs/bitstream/id/59211/IzvestajKomisije.pdf


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