Analiza strukture finansiranja najvećih preduzeća u Srbiji u periodu velike recesije

Abstract

Predmet istraživanja ove disertacije je struktura finansiranja najvećih preduzeća u Srbiji u periodu globalne ekonomske krize koja je započela 2008. godine, u literaturi poznate kao „Velika recesija“. Uzorak čini 186 najvećih preduzeća u Srbiji prema kriterijumu visine poslovnih prihoda, a vremenski horizont posmatranja obuhvata period od 2008-2014. godine. Polazište u istraživanju predstavlja analiza makroekonomskog konteksta poslovanja u Srbiji i analiza finansijskih performansi preduzeća na nivou privrede, po sektorima i veličini preduzeća (velika, srednja i mala). Za razliku od analize privrede koja je bazirana na agregiranim finansijskim izveštajima, analiza preduzeća iz uzorka vršena je na bazi agregiranih i pojedinačnih finansijskih izveštaja, što je omogućilo da se napravi jasna distinkcija između profitabilnih i neprofitabilnih, zaduženih i prezaduženih, preduzeća koja rastu i onih u kontrakciji. Rezultati analize ukazuju na promene u kretanju nivoa zaduženosti i strukturi obaveza, efekte finansijskog leveridža, trend u kretanju likvidnosti i rizika bankrotstva najvećih preduzeća u Srbiji. U cilju identifikovanja ključnih determinanti strukture finansiranja posmatranih preduzeća, testirana su tri modela finansijskog leveridža (ukupni, kratkoročni i dugoročni) primenom ekonometrijskih modela panela (modeli fiksnih individualnih efekata). Takođe, u radu je identifikovan segment preduzeća najvećeg stepena vajabiliteta, iz kojeg je odabrano reprezentativno preduzeće na kojem je analiziran odnos međuzavisnosti strategije preduzeća i strukture finansiranja. Konačno, na bazi rezultata dobijenih u empirijskom delu, u radu su date preporuke za finansijsko restrukturiranje i poslovnu strategiju preduzeća iz uzorka.

The subject of this dissertation is the financial structure of the largest enterprises in Serbia during the period of the global economic crisis that started in 2008, in literature also known as the Great Recession. The research sample comprises 186 largest enterprises in Serbia according to the amount of operating revenues in the period of 2008-2014. Empirical research starts with the analysis of macroeconomic business context in Serbia as well as the analysis of financial performances of enterprises at the level of the economy as a whole, sectoral level and the level of large, medium and small enterprises. While the analysis at the level of economy was based on aggregated financial statements, the analysis of the sampled enterprises was performed on the basis of aggregated as well as individual financial statements. This approach allowed for a clear distinction between profitable and unprofitable, indebted and over-indebted as well as enterprises in growth or in contraction. The results of the analysis indicate the changes in the level of indebtedness and the structure of liabilities, the effects of financial leverage, the trends in liquidity and the risk of bankruptcy of the largest enterprises in Serbia. In order to identify the key determinants of the financial structure of the sampled enterprises, three models of financial leverage were tested (total, short-term and long-term) using panel data fixed effects models. Additionally, the segment of enterprises with the highest level of viability was identified, from which a representative enterprise was selected in order to analyze the interdependence between the enterprise strategy and financial structure. Finally, on the basis of the results obtained in the empirical work, the dissertation offers recommendations for the financial restructuring and business strategy of sampled enterprises.