Teorijsko-empirijska evaluacija nove neoklasične sinteze
Theoretical and empirical evaluation of the new neoclassical synthesis
Докторанд
Mihajlović, Vladimir S.Ментор
Marjanović, GordanaЧланови комисије
Jakšić, MiomirPraščević, Aleksandra
Leković, Vlastimir
Метаподаци
Приказ свих података о дисертацијиСажетак
Apstrakt:
Razvoj makroekonomije tokom XX veka obeležen je brojnim teorijskim
kontroverzama, revolucijama i kontrarevolucijom. Ipak, pored razlika u polaznim
pretpostavkama teorijskih pravaca u okviru dve struje glavnog toka ekonomske
misli (kejnzijanske i neoklasične), postojala je tendencija približavanja njihovih
stavova u pogledu ključnih ekonomskih pitanja. Ovi procesi doveli su do
uspostavljanja neoklasične sinteze, koja je bila aktuelna do sedamdesetih godina
prošlog veka. Neoklasična kontrarevolucija, koja je usledila, reafirmisala je neka
od predkejnzijanskih shvatanja, ali i podstakla nastanak novog kejnzijanizma.
Međutim, tokom devedesetih godina, razlike između suprotstavljenih strana su
počele da se smanjuju, što je omogućilo postizanje konsenzusa, koji je, po analogiji
sa „starom“ sintezom, nazvan novom neoklasičnom sintezom.
U skladu sa tim, predmet istraživanja u doktorskoj disertaciji je evaluacija
teorijskog okvira nove neoklasične sinteze, kroz detaljnu e...laboraciju njenih
konstitutivnih elemenata. Putem sučeljavanja stavova ekonomskih škola glavnog
toka, kao i heterodoksnih teorija, ispitano je da li nova neoklasična sinteza
predstavlja najviši stupanj u dosadašnjem razvoju makroekonomske teorije. Na
bazi analize mikroekonomskih osnova i njihovih makroekonomskih implikacija, kao
i pristupa monetarnoj i fiskalnoj politici, u radu se daje ocena validnosti
makroekonomskog modela nove sinteze u kontekstu njegovog nastanka, ali i
događaja koji su izazvali Veliku Recesiju 2008. godine. Osnovni zaključak je da se
efikasnost ovog modela u predstavljanju savremenih privreda i davanju projekcija
može održati uvođenjem elemenata vezanih za funkcionisanje finansijskog
sektora.
Pored teorijske, u radu je izvršena i empirijska analiza ključnih elemenata nove
sinteze. Na primeru odabranih razvijenih i tranzicionih zemalja ispitana je
održivost teze o odnosu stvarne nezaposlenosti i NAIRU stope, kao i
determinantama ove stope. Istražena je i validnost novokejnzijanske Filipsove
krive, koja ima značajno mesto u modelu nove neoklasične sinteze. Generalno,
rezultati empirijskog istraživanja su potvrdili ispravnost pristupa nove
neoklasične sinteze ovim problemima, kao i polaznu pretpostavku da postoje
kvalitativne razlike između podobnosti modela nove sinteze za analizu privreda
razvijenih i tranzicionih zemalja.
Abstract:
The development of macroeconomics during the twentieth century was marked by many
theoretical controversies, revolutions, and a counter-revolution. Despite the differences in
the starting assumptions of theoretical approaches within two currents of the mainstream
of economic thought (Keynesian and neoclassical), there was a tendency to converge their
views on key economic issues. These processes have led to the establishment of
Neoclassical Synthesis, which was current until the seventies. Neoclassical counterrevolution
that followed reaffirmed some of the pre-Keynesian views, but also induced the
emergence of the New Keynesianism. However, during the nineties, the differences
between the parties began to decrease, which allowed reaching a consensus, which is, by
analogy with the "old" synthesis, called the New Neoclassical Synthesis.
Accordingly, the subject of the doctoral dissertation research is to evaluate theoretical
framework of the New Neoclassical Synthes...is, through detailed elaboration of its
constituent elements. By confronting the views of mainstream economic schools, as well as
heterodox theories, it was investigated whether the New Neoclassical Synthesis represents
the highest level of the current development in macroeconomic theory. Based on the
analysis of microeconomic foundations and their macroeconomic implications, as well as
approach to monetary and fiscal policy, the paper assesses the validity of macroeconomic
model of the New Synthesis in the context of its creation, but also events that caused the
Great Recession of 2008. The main conclusion is that the efficiency of this model in
presenting modern economies and projecting can be maintained by introducing elements
related to financial sector functioning.
In addition to theoretical analysis, the key elements of the New Synthesis were also
empirically analyzed. The subject of empirical investigation was viability of the thesis on
the relationship between actual unemployment and the NAIRU rate, as well as
determinants of the rate, in the case of selected developed and transition countries. The
validity of the New-Keynesian Phillips Curve, which has a significant place in the model of
the New Neoclassical Synthesis, was analyzed as well. Overall, the results of empirical
research have confirmed the accuracy of the New Neoclassical Synthesis approach to these
issues, as well as the initial assumption that there are qualitative differences between
suitability of the New Synthesis Model for analyzing economies of developed and transition
countries.