Valutna supstitucija : uzroci i posledice

Abstract

Currency substitution exists when currency of some other country is used parallel to or instead of the domestic currency, while foreign currency can take over from the local currency some or all of the functions of money. Currency substitution is typical for almost all developing countries and transition economies. Since it increases financial vulnerability and limits the monetary policy effectiveness, it is often in the focus of scientists and experts. However, it seems that our literature has not paid sufficient attention to this phenomenon, despite the fact that with over 70% of the assets and liabilities of the banking sector in foreign currency, Serbia is one of the countries with the highest degree of euroization in Europe. Therefore, this dissertation aims to systematize the existing theoretical knowledge about this issue and comprehensively examine the phenomenon of currency substitution. The paper analyzes the significance of the seven determinants of credit euroisation in the ten countries of Central and Southeast Europe for the period 2003-2015. The analysis shows that the average inflation rate, the difference between the reference rate of the national central banks and the ECB rate, and the share of foreign currency liabilities in total liabilities have a statistically significant impact on the amount of credit euroisation. Particular attention has been paid to ten determinants of euroisation in Serbia in the period 2009-2016. In this case, statistically significant factors of euroisation of loans are average rate of inflation, the difference between the reference rate of the NBS and the ECB rate.