Novi pristup prognoziranju novih komunikacionih servisa sa varijabilnim potencijalom tržišta

Abstract

Predmet istraživanja ove doktorske disertacije je аnаlizа difuzionih modelа nа osnovu koje je predložen i razvijen novi model prognozirаnjа novih servisа sа promenljivim potencijаlom tržištа. Novi model se bazira nа modifikаciji osnovnog Bass-ovog difuzionog modelа u cilju prilаgođenja modelа eksploаtаcionim kаrаkteristikаmа servisа i razvoju neophodne infrastrukture mreže, kao i socio-ekonomskim kаrаkteristikаmа potencijalnog tržišta. Pored rаzvojа novog modelа, dаt je i prikаz postojećih modelа prognozirаnjа dostupnih u stručnoj literaturi. Osnovni cilj disertacije je rešavanje problema prognoziranja brzine difuzije prihvatanja novog komunikacionog servisa, koja zavisi od dinamike razvoja infrastrukture mreže. Ukoliko tehnička podrška novog servisa nije realizovana istovremeno, servis se ne može ponuditi kompletnom tržištu. S obzirom da se proces prihvatanja novog servisa odvija etapno, shodno izgradnji infrastrukture mreže, potencijal tržišta se ne može tretirati kao vremenski nezavisan parametar modela (osnovni nedostatak Bass-ovog modela). Upravo to je i osnovni motiv disertacije – razviti difuzioni model koji potencijal tržišta posmatra kao vremenski zavisnu veličinu, čiju promenu diktira dinamika razvoja infrastrukture komunikacione mreže. Nakon izučavanja različitih difuzionih modela, tehničko-eksploatacionih zahteva novih servisa i socio-ekonomskih indikatora razvoja tržišta, predložen je novi model sa promenljivim potencijalom tržišta. U tezi je primenjena segmentacija tržišta prema socio-ekonomskim karakteristikama korisnika i topologiji terena, kao i simulacija različitih scenarija razvoja u cilju odabira optimalnog pristupa razvoju infrastrukture mreže. Dobijeni rezultati pokazuju da razvoj i implementacija novog modela mogu imati značajnu praktičnu primenu kod telekomunikacionih operatora i servis provajdera, u cilju uspešnog planiranja i projektovanja komunikacione mreže. Adekvatnim planiranjem mreže omogućeno je, kako poboljšanje funkcionisanja same mreže, tako i poboljšanje kvaliteta servisa koji se nudi korisnicima. Takođe, efekti koji se mogu prepoznati ogledaju se i u pravovremenom uvođenju novih servisa, koordinisanoj proizvodnji terminalne opreme, kao i u određivanju i rasporedu potrebne kadrovske strukture...

The main research topic of this doctoral thesis is the analysis of new service diffusion forecasting models. Based on this analysis a new diffusion model with variable market potential is proposed. Development of new mathematical model is based on the Basic Bass diffusion model. The aim is to adjust the model to the operational features of services/products and to the socio-economic parameters of the market that drive potential customers. In addition, this thesis considers existing forecasting models available at the literature and the obtained results of the proposed model are compared to the similar forecasting models. This thesis tries to solve the problem of forecasting the adoption of new service that depends on the dynamics of network infrastructure development. If technical support of some new service is not provided in the whole territory, then the service cannot be simultaneously offered to the market. Therefore, the adoption process is performing in steps, following the systematic process of the infrastructure development. The model considers variable market potential that depends on the technical capabilities related to some new telecommunications services. The availability of traffic area infrastructure is increasing during the time according to the infrastructure investment necessity. That is the basic motive of the thesis - developing the diffusion model with variable market potential, caused by dynamics of the network infrastructure development. After researching various diffusion models, as well as technical parameters of the services and socio-economic indicators of the market, an optimal forecasting model is proposed that includes the time varying market potential. This model uses market segmentation and the simulation of various market scenarios in order to indicate effective service rollout. Demand forecasting is required in order to dimensioning of required network resources. Moreover, this model offers the insight into the operator's compromises regarding decisions in the network investment. The resulting plan is a network deployment strategy that defines temporal sequence of network layouts. Thus, the upgrade plan indicates which investments are indispensible at each point of time. The model is of great importance for operators and service providers in decision making and planning, especially in developing countries, as well as in times of economic crisis. It should be noted that the strength of the model lies in its robustness and applicability to real situations that are especially characteristic for the telecommunications market...