Modeli predikcije ishoda borbi vrhunskih takmičara u rvanju grčko-rimskim i slobodnim stilom

Abstract

U retrospektivnoj eksplorativnoj studiji sa paralelnim grupama, na uzorku borbi rvača grčko-rimskim i slobodnim stilom (n=268), koji su nastupili na završnom olimpijskom turniru (OI London 2012.), ispitana je struktura prostora u kojem se odvija takmičarska aktivnost i utvrdjene su razlike izmedju subuzoraka formiranih pod kriterijumima stila, težinske kategorije i ishoda borbe. Svaki nastup takmičara bio je opisan sa 40 varijabli, u kojima su rezultati prikupljeni faktografskom metodom i analizom video zapisa borbe. Rezultati ukazuju da se takmičarska aktivnost u rvanju, bez obzira na disciplinu u kojoj rvači nastupaju, može posmatrati u jedinstvenom prostoru tehničko-taktičke aktivnosti, kojeg definiše pet latentnih dimenzija interpretiranih kao: takmičarska efikasnost, morfološke dimenzionalnosti, trajanje meča, sporne tehničko-taktičke aktivnosti tokom meča i povrede sportskih pravila u takmičarskoj aktivnosti. Upoređivanje subuzoraka prema težinskim kategorijama kod rvača grčko-rimskim stilom su konstatovane razlike u sedam, a kod rvača slobodnim stilom, u trinaest varijabli. Pobednici i poraženi u grčko-rimskom stilu razlikovali su se u osamnaest varijabli, dok su u slobodnom stilu ove razlike su bile značajne u četrnaest varijabli. Rezultati ukazuju da pobednike u grčko-rimskom stilu karakteriše takmičarska efikasnost u elementima odbrane i napada u parteru, dok pobednike u slobodnom stilu karakterišu elementi kojima se osvajaju bodovi u stojećem stavu, kao i u klinču. Uporedjivanje stilova u multivarijatnom modelu ukazuje da slobodni stil obiluje većom dinamikom i brojem izvedenih tehničko-taktičkih elemenata tokom borbe, u odnosu na grčko-rimski stil, u kojem više do izražaja dolaze morfološki pokazatelji. Metodom binarne logističke regresione analize formirani su modeli predikcije ishoda mečeva, koji su prikazali zavidne prediktivne sposobnosti. Od analiziranih varijabli najznačajniji doprinos pozitivnom ishodu meča u grčko-rimskom stilu, imalo su pokazatelji takmičarske efikasnosti u odbrani i napadu u parteru. Kod rvača slobodnim stilom najznačajniji doprinos je imala efikasnost izvodjenja tehnika u stojećem stavu, zatim osvajanje poena u klinču i na kraju efikasnost izvodjenja tehnika u parteru.

In a retrospective exploratory study with parallel groups, on a fight sample of Greco-Roman and Freestyle wrestlers (n = 268), performing at the final Olympic tournament (London, 2012), the structure of the space in which the competitive activity occurred was examined and the differences between subsamples formed under the criteria of style, weight category and the fight outcome were determined. Each contestant's performance was described trough 40 variables, in which the results were collected using factographic method and analyzing the fight video records. The results indicate that the competitive activity in wrestling, regardless of the discipline in which the wrestlers perform, can be observed in the unique space of technical and tactical actions, which defines five latent dimensions interpreted as: competitive efficiency, morphological dimensionality, the duration of the match, disputed technical and tactical actions during the match and competition rules violations in sports activities. Comparing subsamples according to weight categories in Greco-Roman wrestlers differences were noted in seven, and in Freestyle wrestlers in thirteen variables. Winners and defeated in the Greco-Roman style differed in eighteen variables, while in Free style these differences were significant in fourteen variables. The results indicate that the winners in Greco-Roman style are characterized by competitive efficiency in the defense and the attack elements on the ground, while the winners in Free style are characterized by elements awarding points in the standing position, as well as in the clinch. Comparison of styles in the multivariate model indicates that the Freestyle abounds the greater dynamics and the number of implemented technical and tactical elements during the fight, in relation to the Greco-Roman style, in which morphological indicators are more manifested. Using binary logistic regression analysis method the match outcome predicting models were established showing remarkable predictive ability. Of the analyzed variables the most significant contribution to the positive outcome of the match in the Greco-Roman style had indicators of competitive efficiency in defense and attack on mr Mladen Kecman - doktorska disertacija v the ground. In Freestyle wrestlers the most significant contribution had the efficiency in performance techniques in a standing position, then conquer points in the clinch and eventually the effectiveness of performance techniques on the ground.