Hibridni model upravljanja kapacitetom životne sredine

Abstract

Operational adaptive management, prediction, and prevention of risk events are significant for a successful concept of environmental capacity management. Therefore, it is necessary to develop an integrating hybrid model of environmental capacity management that would incorporate the existing models of environmental capacity management. The subject of this doctoral research is aimed towards developing a model of environmental capacity management and towards clearly and unequivocally proving the causal relationships between determinants of environmental vulnerability, resilience, and capacity. The research is focused on demonstrating the necessity of assessing environmental vulnerability, resilience, and capacity levels and on creating a new hybrid model of environmental capacity management that would help achieve proactivity in an environmental capacity management system and in environmental protection in general. The modelling of environmental capacity management processes and their performance will be based on quantitative and qualitative methods such as factor analysis, Turner's method, and fuzzy AHP. Incorporation of the hybrid model in a GIS environment will enable proper simulation analysis and verification of the model based on the DPSIR analytical framework and the relevant data available from the research sources. Definition of referential criteria and indicators of environmental vulnerability, resilience, and capacity constitutes the practical scientific contribution of this research. The results obtained in this research form a basis for the improvement of the following processes: identification of interdependence aspects in the society-environment system, ecological risk assessment, evaluation of vulnerability level of society as an environmental component, as well as design of advanced programs of environmental capacity management in a broader and narrower context and on different spatial and temporal levels. The results also raise the possibility of investigating the quantification of the effects of a hybrid environmental protection system and the monitoring and evaluation of environmental protection performance. This doctoral dissertation is a result of the author’s research, conducted both individually and in cooperation with other researchers dealing with this subject matter, affiliated with the following institutions: University of Niš, Faculty of Occupational Safety in Niš; University of Novi Sad, Faculty of Technical Sciences, Disaster Risk Reduction Research Centre; University of Defence, Military Academy; Ministry of Interior, Emergency Management Sector; Serbian Environmental Protection Agency; Russian-Serbian Humanitarian Centre; Disaster Management Training and Education Centre for Africa, Republic of South Africa; EMERCOM of Russia; and United Nations University, Institute for Environmental and Human Security, Germany.