Razvoj metodologije za procenu indikatora u cilju unapređenja klimatološke suše

Abstract

U ovoj doktorskoj disertaciji dat je predlog dizajna algoritma i metodologije za procenu indikatora suše – MEPIS. Istraživanje metoda praćenja suše obuhvatilo je tri tradicionalna indikatora i jedan novo formirani. Sve ukupno analizirano je 16 varijacija četiri odabrana indeksa suše period istraživanja obuhvatio je 62 godine, 1951-2012. Analize indikatora ukazale su na opravdanost menjanja pristupa pristupa problematici suše i odstupanja od stohastičkog razmatranja njene pojave i pristupanja termodinamičkim osnovama suše. Modelovanje suše po analogiji sa procesom sušenja vazduhom pokazalo je zadovoljavajuće rezultate i kao agregat ovog pristupa dobijen je IDEA indeks za praćenje uslova koji pogoduju suši. Kao indeks suše koji se striktno bazira na simulaciji fizičkih procesa ukazuje na mogućnost definisanja fizičkog stanja atmosfere koji odgovara stanju suše i korak je ka uniformnoj fizičkoj definiciji suše na osnovu uslova koji je uzrokuju. MEPIS u svojoj punoj formi bi dao dovoljno argumenata da se određeni indeksi koriste operativno i mogao bi opravdati neophodne investicije u tehničke i ljudske resurse.

In this doctoral dissertation have been proposed the designs of the algorithm and methodology for drought indicator assessment –MEPIS. Methods of drought monitoring were assessed. Three traditional drought indicators and one newly developed were investigated. In total 16 variations of four selected drought indicators were analyzed. Research covered period of 62 years, from 1951-2012. Analyses have resulted with justification that approach to the drought problem should be changed from stochastic to the one based on thermodynamics of drought. Modelling of drought in analogy with air drying has shown satisfactory results and as an aggregate of this approach was obtained IDEA drought indicator. Developed indicator showed significant progress in identifying meteorological conditions that favor the development of drought. It proves it is possible to define physical conditions that correspond to the state of drought. It is step forward to uniform definition of drought phenomena. MEPIS in its full form would give enough arguments to make decision about usage of tested drought indicators and could justify the necessary investments in the technical and human resources.