Višekriterijumska analiza kvaliteta vode Dunava u Srbiji

Abstract

Integralno upravljanje vodnim resursima postavlja nove ciljeve i standarde pri rešavanju problema u vodoprivredi, uvažavajući realne mogućnosti, osnovne principe i zahteve definisane Okvirnom direktivom o vodama Evropske unije. U tim nastojanjima, značajno mesto pripada i razrešavanju ekoloških problema, a posebno onih međunarodnog karaktera, koji se odnose na kvalitet vode. Potreba za utvrđivanjem kvaliteta vode Dunava duž toka kroz Srbiju, primenom metode višekriterijumskog odlučivanja i formiranjem modela prognoze koncentracija polutanata na određenim lokacijama na Dunavu, osnovni je motiv za iniciranje istraživanja u ovoj doktorskoj disertaciji. Istraživanja su sprovedena korišćenjem fonda podataka RHMZ Srbije, za period od 2005. do 2009. godine, na sedamnaest hidroloških mernih stanica, na određenom rastojanju od ušća duž toka Dunava kroz Srbiju. Metodom indeksa kvaliteta vode ocenjivan je kvalitet površinske vode i utvrđen je trend promene kvaliteta vode u posmatranom periodu. Promene parametara indeksne metode posmatrane su u prostoru i vremenu. Takođe je izvršena procena eko-hemijskog statusa vode Dunava u odnosu na vrednosti parametara kvaliteta vode utvrđenih Direktivom 75/440/EEC. Procenjen je stvarni u odnosu na zahtevani kvalitet vode. Formiranjem modela višekriterijumskog odlučivanja, na osnovu parametara kvaliteta vode, rangirana su merna mesta i identifikovani najznačajniji polutanti vode Dunava, koji pokazuju povišene koncentracije na tačno utvrđenim lokacijama. U višekriterijumskoj analizi korišćena je PROMETHEE/GAIA metoda. S obzirom na neusaglašenost parametara indeksne metode i ne postojanje globalne standardizacije metode, generisan je novi model indeksne metode delimično usklađen sa standardima ovlašćenih institucija Srbije, preporukama Svetske zdravstvene organizacije i direktivama Evropske unije, na kojem se bazira model prognoze koncentracije polutanata na pojedinim lokacijama na Dunavu.Rezultati kompletne PROMETHEE analize rangiranja parametara kvaliteta vode za 2009. godinu pokazuju da je najmanje zagađeno merno mesto, sa najboljim kvalitetom vode, Dobra (L14), dok je najzagađenije merno mesto, sa najlošijim kvalitetom vode, Pančevo (L9), sa odgovarajućim neto tokovima preferencije Φ=0,20 i Φ=-0,15 respektivno. Pri tome su analize, pomoću opšte metode PLS (metoda parcijalnih najmanjih kvadrata), kao posebno važne faktore potencijalnog ekološkog rizika koje utiču na kvalitet vode, izdvojile nekoliko polutanata (ukupni oksidi azota, ortofosfati, suspendovane materije i amonijum jon), iako to nisu jedini relevantni i dominantni parametri. Analizom GAIA ravni, koja se zasniva na analizi glavnih komponenata (PCA), identifikovani su oksidi azota, ortofosfati, suspendovane čestice i amonijum jon, kao najvažnije promenljive koje utiču na rangiranje vode. Ove promenljive su potom potvrđene PLS analizom, što se može koristiti pri modelovanju i predviđanju nivoa ostalih polutanata vode. Iako modelovanje ne daje zadovoljavajuća predviđanja nekih pokazatelja kvaliteta vode, s obzirom na činjenicu da su podaci korišćeni za modelovanje dobijeni istraživanjima koja nisu sprovedena metodom planiranja eksperimenta, rezultati ipak daju podršku održivosti primenjenog koncepta. Suštinski, pristup omogućuje da se metodom analize više promenljivih podataka predvidi kvalitet vode iz nekoliko lako izmerenih serija promenljivih. Rezultati istraživanja ove disertacije mogu da posluže kao značajna osnova za dalje ekološke procene kvaliteta površinskih voda

Integrated management of water resources sets new goals and standards for the solution of the problems in water supply taking into consideration real possibilities, basic principles and requirements defined in the Water Framework Directive of the European Union. An important part in such efforts belongs to solving the environmental problems, especially those of international importance, related to water quality. Primary motivation for initiating a research in this field was a need for determining water quality of the Danube River in Serbia using multi-criteria decision making method and establishing a prediction model of pollutant concentrations at specific locations on the Danube. The study was conducted using current available data of the Republic Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia (RHSS) for the period of time from 2005 to 2009. The investigation of the state of water quality of the Danube River included seventeen hydrological measuring stations at given distances from the river mouth. The surface water quality was determined using water quality index (WQI) method and the trend of water quality changes in the observed period has been established. Long-term changes in ten water quality parameters were observed in time and space. Also, an assessment of the eco-chemical status of the Danube River was conducted with respect to the water quality parameters values established by the Directive 75/440/EEC of the European Union. The actual and required water quality of the Danube in Serbia was established. For the purposes of ranking the selected locations in terms of water quality parameters multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) was applied and more specifically the PROMETHEE / GAIA method. By applying multi-criteria analysis it is possible to locate the pollution zones on the Danube in Serbia, according to the selected water quality parameters. Given the inconsistency between selected water quality parameters and lack of a global standardization method, a new model of indexing method is generated, partially compliant with the standards of authorized institutions in Serbia, recommendations of the World Health Organization and the European Union. The model for prediction of pollutant concentrations at some measuring stations on Danube was based on this new generated method. PROMETHEE performed a complete ranking of selected locations from the aspect of presence of harmful water quality parameters in the river on selected locations. The results show that the least polluted measuring point (with the best water quality) is location Dobra (L14), while the most polluted measuring point (with the worst water quality) is location Pančevo (L9) according to their net flows preferences Φ = 0.20 and Φ = -0.15, respectively. At the same time, the analysis using the general PLS (partial least squares) method revealed several pollutants (total oxides of nitrogen, orthophosphate, suspended matter and ammonium ion) as a particularly important potential environmental risk factors that affect the quality of water, although these are not the only relevant and dominant parameters. GAIA plane analysis, based on principal component analysis (PCA), identified oxides of nitrogen, orthophosphate, suspended matter and ammonium ion as the most important variables that have influence on the water quality ranking. These variables were then validated by PLS analysis and could be used in the modeling and prediction of the other water pollutants levels. Although modeling process did not give satisfactory predictions of some water quality indicators, due to the fact that the data used for modeling were not obtained through the surveys conducted by the planning of the experiment, the results do give support to the sustainability of the concept applied. Essentially, the approach allows the analysis method of multiple variables data to predict the water quality from a few easily measured variables series. The research results of this thesis can serve as an important basis for further environmental assessment on surface water quality