Samoubistva u Srbiji u kontekstu savremenih demografskih i društvenoekonomskih promena

Abstract

Social sciences / Demography

Samoubistvo predstavlja veoma složen, dinamičan i heterogen fenomen, uslovljen međudejstvom niza psiholoških, socijalnih i bioloških faktora, ali ta pojava postaje sve bitnija i sa demografske tačke gledišta. Prema podacima Svetske zdravstvene organizacije u svetu je početkom 2010-ih godina usled samoubistva godišnje umiralo oko 800 hiljada lica ili oko 11 na 100.000 stanovnika. U pogledu vrednosti stope samoubistva postoje veoma naglašene regionalne razlike, a stope se kreću u intervalu od ispod 0,3 do blizu 40 na 100.000. U Srbiji, u razdoblju od ranih 1950-ih do sredine druge decenije 21. veka, ukupan broj samoubistava premašio je 75 hiljada. Srbija se sredinom 2010-ih sa oko 16 samoubistava na 100.000 stanovnika nalazi znatno iznad svetskog i neznatno iznad evropskog proseka. Predmet istraživanja doktorske disertacije su samoubistva u Srbiji od 1950. do 2014. godine. To 65-godišnje razdoblje podeljeno je na dva potperioda – prvi od 1950. do 1990, i drugi od 1990. do 2014. Pažnja je fokusirana na novije razdoblje (1990-2014), ne samo zbog toga što je to skorašnji period, već i zbog dostupnosti mnogo sadržajnije i kvalitetnije statističke građe. Osnovi cilj disertacije je da se kompleksno, ali prvenstveno iz demografskog ugla istraži fenomen samoubistva koji, pored toga što je prvorazredni problem javnog zdravlja, ima i značajne socijalne, ekonomske, a takođe i demografske implikacije. Ostvarenje tog cilja podrazumeva utvrđivanje osnovnih tendencija u dinamici tog fenomena, ali i ukazivanje na perspektive budućih promena. Jedan od važnih ciljeva je i sagledavanje uticaja opštih, društvenoekonomskih uslova na pojavu i karakteristike samoubistava od sredine 20. veka, a posebno imajući u vidu da je za Srbiju poslednja decenija 20. veka bila razdoblje velikih političkih previranja i ratova na prostoru bivše Jugoslavije, kao i eskalacije ekonomske krize. S tim u vezi, izvršeno je poređenje uočenih trendovа s onim u drugim zemljama kako bi se sagledale sličnosti i eventualno izdvojile specifičnosti koje se odnose na stanovništvo Srbije. Takođe, cilj je i da se ukaže na najvažnije teorijske nalaze iz sve brojnije naučne literature koja obrađuje fenomen suicida, njegove faktore rizika i zaštite. Prvenstveno je korišćen standardni, tzv. normativni naučnoistraživački metod. Primenjena je demografska analiza mortaliteta i to uglavnom transverzalnog metoda, a izračunate su vrednosti najvažnijih indikatora smrtnosti usled samoubistva (opšta stopa samoubistva, specifične stope suicidnog mortaliteta po starosti i polu, standardizovana stopa samoubistva).

Suicide is a very complex, dynamic and heterogeneous phenomenon, caused by interactions of a range of psychological, social and biological factors, but the phenomenon is also becoming increasingly important from the demographic point of view. According to the World Health Organization, at the beginning of 2010s, about 800 thousand persons in the world or about 11 per 100,000 population died due to suicide each year. In terms of the suicide rates there are very pronounced regional differences, and the rates range from less than 0.3 to nearly 40 per 100,000. In Serbia, in the period from the early 1950s to the middle of the second decade of the 21st century, the total number of suicides exceeded 75 thousand. In the mid-2010s, with about 16 suicides per 100,000 Serbia was significantly above the world and slightly above the European average. The research subject of the doctoral dissertation is suicide in Serbia from 1950 to 2014. This 65-year period was divided into two sub-periods - the first from 1950 to 1990, and the second from 1990 to 2014. Attention is focused on the latest period (1990-2014), not only because it is recent, but also due to the availability of much more substantial and better quality statistical data. The basic aim of the dissertation is to investigate comprehensively, but primarily from the demographic perspective, the phenomenon of suicide, which besides being one of the greatest public health problems, also has significant social, economic, as well as demographic implications. The achievement of this aim involves establishing basic tendencies in the dynamics of this phenomenon, but also pointing to the prospects of future changes. One of the important aims is also to assess the influence of the general, socioeconomic conditions on the occurrence and characteristics of suicide starting from the mid- 20th century, especially bearing in mind that for Serbia the last decade of the 20th century was a period of great political turmoil and wars in the former Yugoslavia and the escalation of the economic crisis. In this regard, comparisons of the observed trends were made with those in other countries in order to identify similarities and possibly single out the specificities relating the population of Serbia. In addition, the aim is to point to the most important theoretical findings from the growing scientific literature that deals with the phenomenon of suicide, its risk and protective suicide factors. Primarily, the standard, the so-called normative research method was used. The demographic analysis of mortality was applied, mainly of transversal method, and the values of the most important indicators of mortality by suicide were calculated (suicide rate, age-specific suicide rate by sex, age-standardised suicide rate).