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Modeliranje hidrološkog ciklusa u integrisanom geofizičkom sistemu

Modeling of the hydrological cycle in the integrated geophysical system

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2015
Disertacija3528.pdf (17.98Mb)
Vujadinovic_Mirjam.pdf (255.5Kb)
Author
Vujadinović Mandić, Mirjam P.
Mentor
Rajković, Borivoj
Committee members
Đurđević, Vladimir
Vuković, Ana
Metadata
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Abstract
Hidrološki ciklus u integrisanom geofizičkom sistemu ima ulogu da simulira procese vezane za kopnene vode i međusobne interakcije komponenti klimatskog sistema koji opisuju kruženje vode u prirodi. Numerički modeli za prognozu vremena i simulaciju klime obuhvataju najveći deo ovih procesa i razvojem računarskih resursa postaju kompleksniji i prerastaju u modele za simulaciju celog geofizičkog sistema. Hidrološki ciklus u operativnim modelima nije zatvoren zbog nedostatka dinamičkog modela koji simulira kopneni oticaj vode. U ovom radu je predstavljen numerički model za simulaciju i prognozu površinskog oticaja koji direktno utiče na stanje podloge, što je donji granični uslov za atmosferske procese i prognozu vremena. Model je razvijen u skladu sa modelom za prognozu vremena poslednje generacije, NMMB, koji ima sposobnost da simulira procese od globalnih do lokalnih razmera. Testiranje numeričke ispravnosti nove komponente hidrološkog ciklusa kvalifikovalo ga je za povezivanje sa atmos...ferskim modelom. Povezani numerički model sa zatvorenim hidrološkim ciklusom otvara mogućnost za poboljšanje kvaliteta prognoza i klimatskih simulacija i uvodi nove prognostičke produkte koji mogu naći upotrebu u sistemima najava i upozorenja na ekstremne vremenske prilike. Upotreba ovakvog modela u operativnoj prognozi demonstrirana je na primeru simulacije majskih poplava 2014. godine u oblasti zapadnog Balkana. Povezani model je uspešno reprodukovao hidrološki ciklus ove vremenske nepogode, tj. intenzivne padavine, njihovo oticanje po površini i akumulaciju, uključujući njegovu interakciju sa podlogom i atmosferom, sve do porasta signala u rečnom toku, u skladu sa osmatranjim

Hydrological cycle in the integrated geophysical system simulates processes related to inland waters and interactions between the climate system components, that describes water cycle in its natural environment. Numerical models for weather forecast and climate simulations include majority of these processes and, following computer resource development, they are more complex and evolve into models of the integrated geophysical system. Hydrological cycle in operational numerical weather prediction models is not complete because dynamical overland water flow component is missing. Here is presented numerical model for simulation and forecast of the surface runoff, which has direct impact on land surface conditions and thereby lower boundary condition for atmospheric processes and weather forecast as well. The model is developed following numerical approach in the last generation weather forecast model, NMMB, which has the ability to simulate processes from global to local scales. Tests fo...r numerical stability of the new hydrological cycle component justified its implementation within the atmospheric model. Coupled numerical model with complete water cycle opens new possibilities for quality increase in weather forecast and climate simulation, and introduces new prognostic products, which can be used in extreme weather warning system. Such model performance in operational forecast is demonstrated in case study of May 2014 flood event over west Balkans. Coupled model successfully simulated hydrological cycle in this extreme weather event with high precipitation, intense water surface runoff and accumulation, including its interaction with land surface and atmosphere, and at the end producing high signal in river discharge as observed.

Faculty:
Универзитет у Београду, Физички факултет
Date:
13-10-2015
Projects:
  • Studying climate change and its influence on environment: impacts, adaptation and mitigation (RS-43007)
Keywords:
hidrološki ciklus / hydrological cycle / geofizički sistem / numeričko modeliranje / geophysical system / numerical modeling
[ Google Scholar ]
Handle
https://hdl.handle.net/21.15107/rcub_nardus_5578
URI
https://nardus.mpn.gov.rs/handle/123456789/5578
http://eteze.bg.ac.rs/application/showtheses?thesesId=3009
https://fedorabg.bg.ac.rs/fedora/get/o:11238/bdef:Content/download
http://vbs.rs/scripts/cobiss?command=DISPLAY&base=70036&RID=47670287

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