Evolucija monetarne strategije u razvijenim i zemljama u tranziciji

Abstract

The strategy of monetary policy is the result of historical and logical sequence of evolution of the monetary policy strategy of central banking to the present, starting with the monetarist and Keynesian approaches to the actual change in the perception of monetary policy strategy. The concept of the dissertation is so formulated that includes: a) the theoretical aspect of the monetary strategy, b) determinants of choice of optimal monetary strategy, c) the genesis of the strategy of monetary policy in developed economies, d) performance of the monetary strategy in the countries in transition, and e) an analysis of the practical consequences of the implementation of selected monetary strategy in Serbia from 2000 until today. It is important to highlight that the positive and negative effects of the chosen strategy of monetary policy vary from country to country. The object of my research is the development and consequences of the chosen strategy of monetary policy at the global level and at the level of respective country. This opens the possibility of improving the range of selected strategies in both developed and transition countries. This analysis indicated the new solutions with positive implications used by the Fed, ECB and other major central banks in the world, but also the top institutions in transition countries that are now members of the EU. All this refers to possible new directions for the monetary strategy of our top monetary institution. For more than a decade, the current transient period in Serbia is characterized by continuous presence of current account deficit and the budget deficit so-called twin deficit, which led to weak GDP growth, a decline in investments and exports, and many other negative macroeconomic trends in the country. Inflationary tendencies that arise as a result of excessive public spending are a long-term problem in Serbia as well as in developed countries and countries in transition. This trend shows that modern inflation is not only a monetary category and therefore maintaining a given level of inflation within the set framework is much harder and that is one of the main objectives of macroeconomic policy. Inflationary pressures are the consequences of very slow GDP growth in the real sector, high public debt as a percentage of GDP, long-term reduced competitiveness of the economy, the depreciation/appreciation of the domestic currency in the last ten years, the high indebtedness of the economy and other negative macroeconomic implications that follow Serbian economy. Finally an analysis of the current monetary policy strategy of NBS offers new solutions through measures for improving the current monetary strategy of inflation targeting. It is obvious that not only the financial system should control the real sector, as happened in the last ten years in Serbia. Also it ought to be underlined that NBS should not be the institution that determines the value of the national currency, but the currency value should be a reflection of the state of the economy. Therefore the proposed measures that come from the sphere of real and monetary economy should contribute to the improvement of the current monetary strategy.