Evolucija monetarne strategije u razvijenim i zemljama u tranziciji
Evolution of monetary strategy in developed and transition countries
Метаподаци
Приказ свих података о дисертацијиСажетак
The strategy of monetary policy is the result of historical and logical sequence of
evolution of the monetary policy strategy of central banking to the present, starting with the
monetarist and Keynesian approaches to the actual change in the perception of monetary
policy strategy.
The concept of the dissertation is so formulated that includes: a) the theoretical aspect
of the monetary strategy, b) determinants of choice of optimal monetary strategy, c) the
genesis of the strategy of monetary policy in developed economies, d) performance of the
monetary strategy in the countries in transition, and e) an analysis of the practical
consequences of the implementation of selected monetary strategy in Serbia from 2000 until
today.
It is important to highlight that the positive and negative effects of the chosen strategy
of monetary policy vary from country to country. The object of my research is the
development and consequences of the chosen strategy of monetary policy at the global level
a...nd at the level of respective country. This opens the possibility of improving the range of
selected strategies in both developed and transition countries.
This analysis indicated the new solutions with positive implications used by the Fed,
ECB and other major central banks in the world, but also the top institutions in transition
countries that are now members of the EU. All this refers to possible new directions for the
monetary strategy of our top monetary institution.
For more than a decade, the current transient period in Serbia is characterized by
continuous presence of current account deficit and the budget deficit so-called twin deficit,
which led to weak GDP growth, a decline in investments and exports, and many other
negative macroeconomic trends in the country. Inflationary tendencies that arise as a result of
excessive public spending are a long-term problem in Serbia as well as in developed
countries and countries in transition. This trend shows that modern inflation is not only a
monetary category and therefore maintaining a given level of inflation within the set
framework is much harder and that is one of the main objectives of macroeconomic policy.
Inflationary pressures are the consequences of very slow GDP growth in the real sector, high
public debt as a percentage of GDP, long-term reduced competitiveness of the economy, the
depreciation/appreciation of the domestic currency in the last ten years, the high indebtedness
of the economy and other negative macroeconomic implications that follow Serbian
economy.
Finally an analysis of the current monetary policy strategy of NBS offers new
solutions through measures for improving the current monetary strategy of inflation targeting.
It is obvious that not only the financial system should control the real sector, as happened in
the last ten years in Serbia. Also it ought to be underlined that NBS should not be the
institution that determines the value of the national currency, but the currency value should
be a reflection of the state of the economy. Therefore the proposed measures that come from
the sphere of real and monetary economy should contribute to the improvement of the current
monetary strategy.