Matematičko-statističke metode i modeli formiranja tehničkih rezervi u neživotnom osiguranju

Abstract

Rejting i pozicioniranje osiguravača na sve konkurentnijem, veoma nerazvijenom tržištu osiguranja u Republici Srbiji, determinisani su visinom premije osiguranja i mobilnošću i brzinom isplate podnetih zahteva. Ovi markeri kredibiliteta poslovanja zavise od količine novčanih sredstava usmerene na isplate nastalih potraživanja. Tehničke rezerve, kao akumulirana sredstva iz fakturisanih premija, predstavljaju pokušaj da se u nekom vremenskom trenutku odredi finansijska implikacija celokupnog portfelja osiguranja. Procena njihovog iznosa je komplikovana, zbog inherentne neizvesnosti o trenutku, broju i veličini mogućih gubitaka osiguranika. Ove komponente etabliraju kvantifikaciju tehničkih rezervi u neživotnom osiguranju kao veoma aktuelnu i kompleksnu istraživačku oblast i predmet interesovanja kako menadžmenta tako i brojnih aktuara i naučnika. Primarni istraživački interes disertacije leži u analizi matematičko- statističkih metoda i modela obračuna pojedinih komponenti tehničkih rezervi u aktuarskoj praksi Republike Srbije, koja nije dovoljno analizirana u domaćim akademskim krugovima. Kako jaka privredna i ekonomska kriza, koja inhibira razvoj i napredak osiguranja, tangira i ostale privredne aktere, analiza interakcija premija, tehničkih rezervi i solventnosti poslovanja osiguravača praćena je istraživačkim modelom, usmerenim na komparativnu analizu finansijskih i nefinansijskih performansi osiguravajućih društava sa odgovarajućim performansama ostalih privrednih subjekata. Identifikovani uticaj neadekvatnog nivoa troškova sprovođenja osiguranja potvrđuje da kvantifikovanje iznosa tehničkih rezervi, kao i adektavtnog monitoringa nad pojedinim generatorima njihovog iznosa, predstavlja glavni katalizator koncentovanije prakse i kvalitetnijeg poslovanja domaćih osiguravajućih društava, kao sigurnih i stabilnih partnera pri suočavanju sa rizicima i neizvesnošću koje budućnost donosi.

Rating and positioning of insurers in a more competitive market, but underdeveloped insurance market in the Republic of Serbia, are determined by insurance premium rate, mobility and the speed of collection based on the submitted requests. These business operations credibility markers depend on the sum of financial resources intended to settling liabilities. Technical reserves, as accumulated resources originating from invoiced premiums, represent an attempt to determine financial implications of the overall insurance portfolio at a given time. An estimate of their sums is uncertain due to inherent uncertainty regarding the moment, number and size of potential losses of the insured persons. These components establish the quantification of technical reserves in nonlife insurance as a current and complex research field, as well as the subject of interest on the part of management and numerous actuaries and scientists. Primary research interest expressed in this dissertation refers to the analysis of mathematicalstatistical methods and models of calculating individual components of technical reserves in actuary practice which is not sufficiently explored in the academia of the Republic of Serbia. Given the fact that acute economic crisis, which inhibits development and prosperity of the insurance field, affects other business players, the analysis of the interaction among premium, technical reserves and business solvency is accompanied with a research model encompassing comparative analysis of financial and non - financial performance of insurance companies with corresponding performance of other economic entities. The identified influence of inadequate expenses levels in administering insurance confirms that the evaluation of technical reserve sums, as well as the adequate monitoring over individual generators of such sums represents principal catalyst of concentrated practice and better quality of business operations of domestic insurance companies, as secure and stabile partners in facing risks and uncertainties that may arise in the future.