Svetska ekonomska kriza i tranziciona recesija u Srbiji

Abstract

Aktuelna kriza, iako je nastala u uslovima prvenstveno američke privrede, vrlo brzo je dobila predznak globalne. Politika niskih kamatnih stopa u kombinaciji sa procvatom finansijskih inovacija, dovela je do prezaduženosti i, pre svega, krize u oblasti bankarstva. Iako se čini da je ova kriza, usled svoje aktuelnosti, najvećih razmera, istorija kapitalizma je beležila i druge značajne krize. U dvadesetom veku jedna od najznačajnih kriza je okarakterisana kao Velika depresija, koja je ostavila do tada nezapamćene ekonomske posledice u čitavom svetu, kako u okviru američke privrede, tako i u zemljama Evrope. Nakon višegodišnje borbe sa posledicama Velike depresije, period prosperiteta i napretka prekidala su ciklična kretanja u vidu kriznih perioda 1980-ih godina u Latinskoj Americi ili 90-ih godina u Aziji. Kako bismo sagledali po čemu je aktuelna kriza specifična, bilo je neophodno u okviru rada dati pregled pomenutih prethodnih kriza, ali i osvrt na globalni karakter trenutne krize. Efekti krize su sličnog intenziteta u SAD i evropskim zemljama, s tim da jedna specifičnost odlikuje zemlje evro-zone. Iako ne predstavljaju izvor krize, ove privrede su izložene kako efektu globalnih kriznih kretanja, tako i unutrašnjem dužničkom pitanju. Stoga, članice evro-zone imaju posebne programe oporavka usmerene na dvostruko otklanjanje posledica krize – one spolja nametnute pod uticajem krize u SAD i one unutrašnje pod uticajem previsokog, često nekontrolisanog javnog duga. Kriza iz 2008. godine je aktuelizovala pitanje neophodnosti državne intervencije. Ponovo je skrenuta pažnja na značaj mera fiskalne politike, ali i pažljivo odabranog pravca monetarne politike. Tako su najrazvijenije zemlje Evrope sledile primer SAD koja se sve više okreće državnom intervencionizmu i merama potrošnje, a ne štednje. Iako ne postoji univerzalno primenjiv plan oporavka, usled specifičnosti svake od ekonomija i njenih unutrašnjih potreba i problema, čini se da se svetska ekonomija polako kreće ka usaglašenom stavu oko primene pojedinih antikriznih mera. Tako se sve više govori u korist pomenute potrošnje umesto štednje, kao i u korist ekspanzivne monetarne i restriktivne fiskalne politike. Zemlje tranzicionog puta imaju pred sobom više zadataka. Pored završetka reformskih procesa, ovim privredama predstoji i neutralisanje kako efekata krize svetskih razmera, tako i efekata domaće dužničke krize, uslovljene i produženom tranzicionom recesijom. Pri izboru mera ove se privrede mogu oslanjati na iskustvo razvijenijih zemalja koje se u svojim strategijama dugoročno opredeljuju za rast, ili se u okviru svojih mogućnosti mogu osloniti na postojeće strategije obezbeđenja makroekonomske i finansijske stabilnosti, koje u dužem periodu neće imati značajne pozitivne efekte po privredni rast.

Although it has develop in terms of the US economy, very soon current crisis has become global. Policy of low interest rates combined with a booming financial innovation has led to over-indebtedness, primarily in the banking sector at the beginning. There are some opinions that this crisis is one of the largest, but in the history of capitalism there have been other significant crisis. In 20th century one of the most important crisis was the Great Depression, which had economic effect on the whole world, not only American economy, but also the economies of the European countries. After years of struggle with the effects of the Great Depression, period of prosperity and growth was in several times interrupted by periods of crisis like those in Latin America in 1980’s or in Asia in 1990’s. In order to comprehend specific characteristics of current crisis, it was necessary to give an overview of the above-mentioned previous crises, as well as a review of the global nature of the current crisis. The effects of the crisis are similar in intensity in the US and European countries, with a specificity characterized in Euro-zone countries. Although they are not a source of crisis, these economies are exposed to the effects of global crisis movement, and internal issues of debt. Because of that, members of the Euro-zone have special recovery programs aimed at double elimination of the consequences of the crisis – one externally imposed by the crisis in the USA and the one internal influenced by uncontrolled excessive public debt. Crisis from 2008 actualized the question of necessity of the state intervention. Again the attention was drew to the importance of fiscal policy, as well as carefully selected direction of monetary policy. Thus, the most developed countries of Europe followed the example of the US economy which is turning to state interventionism and spending instead of saving measures. Although there is no universally applicable recovery plan, taking into account the specificities of each economy and its internal needs and problems, it appears that the global economy is slowly moving towards a consistent view about certain anti-crisis measures. Now we have more and more of those that are speaking in favor of spending than saving measures, as well as in favor of expansionary monetary and restrictive fiscal policy. Transition countries are facing more tasks on their path. In addition to the completion of the reform process these economies need to neutralize the effects of the crisis of global proportions and also the effects of domestic debt crisis, caused by prolonged transition recession, among other factors. When choosing the set of measures, these economies can rely on the experience of developed countries in their strategies determined by long term growth as an objective, or within their abilities can rely on existing strategies to ensure macroeconomic and financial stability, without significant positive effect on economic growth.