Multivarijabilni modeli upravljanja u rudarstvu
Multi-variable models of management in mining
Author
Hudej, Marjan M.Mentor
Vujić, SlobodanCommittee members
Vujošević, MirkoPavlović, Vladimir
Gagić, Dušan
Miljanović, Igor

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Show full item recordAbstract
osetljivost i rizik. Više pobuda generiše ovakvu atribuciju. Prva je, multivarijabilnost
ambijentalnih uslova i funkcionalna i strukturna složenost rudarskih sistema (čovek -
priroda (radna sredina) - mašina – okruženje); Druga se odnosi na ne postojanje opšte
naučne saglasnosti oko ocene pogodnosti modela za podršku odlučivanju i upravljanje.
Treća, ako bi saglasnost i postojala, nije sigurno da bi raspoloživi modeli, metode i taktike,
dale ekvivalentne rezultate za iste rudničke uslove. Četvrta, sistemske nauke još uvek
nemaju opšte prihvaćen i u praksi primenljiv algoritam izbora najboljeg rešenja u slučaju
kolebanja multimodelskih poredaka alternativa. Prisutni su različiti pristupi u
premoštavanju problema, oni se međusobno ne isključuju, ali ponuđena rešenja nemaju
verifikaciju opšte i univerzalne primenljivosti.
Ovo je uticalo da istraživanja u okviru disertacije, budu usmerena kritičkim stavom prema
pristupima zasnovanim na izboru najboljeg modela za analizu i donošenje upravlj...ačkih
odluka u rudničkim uslovima, drugačijim od uobičajenih industrijskih uslova.
U disertaciji se umesto izbora najboljeg, najpogodnijeg, ili najprikladnijeg modela za
podršku odlučivanju, predlaže proceduralni prilaz. Ovakav prilaz podrazumeva
istovremeno uključivanje u analizu više modela sa korektnom aproksimacijom
multivarijabilnih rudničkih uslova. Pošto cilj nije izbor najboljeg modela već najboljeg
rešenja zadatog problema, prema postavljenom algoritmu postupak izbora najbolje
rangirane alternative ili najboljeg poretka alternativa, zavisi od kolebanja multimodelskih
rangova. U slučaju ekvivalencije multimodelskih rangova, formirani poredak alternativa
prihvata se kao definitivan, u suprotnom konačni poredak alternativa definiše se
ponderisanjem. Ako je cilj najbolja (prvorangirana) alternativa, analiza je opciona zavisno
od stepena ekvivalencije multimodelskih rangova.
Primenljivost i operativnu korisnost postavljenog pristupa, odnosno algoritma
„proceduralnog postupka’’, eksperimentalno je testirana sa četiri modela na šest rudničkih
problema, različite strateške, taktičke ili operativne važnosti. Prosečna korelativnost
multimodelskih i ponderisanih poredaka u 50% testova je u opsegu visoke – jake veze
(0,70-0,89), a u preostalih 50% u opsegu veoma visoke-veoma jake veze (0,90-0,99).
Prosečna korelativnost ponderisanih i multimodelskih poredaka (0,813) veća je za 5,58%
od prosečne korelativnosti (0,77) multimodelskih poredaka.
Primenjeni pristup u istraživanjima i metrični elementi eksperimentalnih rezultata,
obezbeđuju objektivnost sagledavanja i vrednovanja predloženog algoritma za podršku
odlučivanju u multivarijabilnim uslovima. Rezultujući ishodi ovih saznanja, potvrđuju
validnost i praktičnu primenljivost postavljenog algoritma...
The decision making and management in mining engineering are characterized by complexity,
variability, ambiguity, sensibility and risk. There are several incentives for such attribution. The
first is multi-variability of environmental conditions and the functional and structural
complexity of mining production systems (Human – nature (working environment) – machine
– narrower and wider environment). The second is related to the non-existing scientific
consensus regarding the assessment on the suitability of decision making and management
model. The third, even if such consensus existed, it is not sure that available models, methods
and tactics would give equivalent results for different mining conditions. The fourth is that
system sciences still do not have generally accepted and practically applicable algorithm for the
selection of the best solution in case of instability of the multi-model order of alternatives.
There are several approaches in overcoming this problem that are not mut...ually exclusive, but
the offered solutions do not have verification of the general and universal applicability.
This was a determining point that the research within the scope of this dissertation should be
forwarded by a critical standpoint toward approaches based on the selection of the best model
for analysis and management decision making in mining conditions, with major differences
from conditions in other industries.
In the dissertation, opposed to the selection of the best, the most adequate or the most suitable
model for the support to decision making, the procedural approach is recommended. This
approach means to include simultaneous models in the analysis, with accurate approximation
of the multi-variable conditions in mines. Since the goal is not to select the best model, but
rather the best solution for the task in question, the procedure of selection of the best ranked
alternative, or the best order of alternatives is accomplished depends on the instabilities of
multi-model ranks according to the algorithm set. In case of multi-model ranks equivalence, the
order of alternatives is accepted as the final solution, otherwise the process of defining the final
order of alternatives is achieved by pondering. If the goal is the best (the first ranked)
alternative, the procedure is optional, depending on the multi-model ranks equivalence degree.
The applicability and the operative usability of the approach set, i.e. the algorithm of the
“procedural method” developed in this dissertation on four models, is tested with six mining
engineering problems with different strategic, tactical or operational importance. The average
correlation of multi-model and pondered orders for 50% of tests lies within the class of high –
strong connection (0.70-0.89), and for other 50% within the class of very high – very strong
connections (0.90-0.99). The average correlation of the pondered and multi-model orders
(0.813) is larger by 5.58 % than the average correlation (0.77) of the multi-model orders.
The applied approach in the research, and metric elements of the experimental tests results are
ensuring the objective assessment and valuation of the suggested algorithm for the support to
decision making in multi-variable conditions. The outcome of these findings are confirming the
validity and practical applicability of the suggested approach...