Modelovanje i analiza uticaja prostornog i vremenskog profila snage vetra u projektovanju i eksploataciji vetroelektrana u elektroenergetskom sistemu

Abstract

Predmet istraživanja doktorske disertacije je modelovanje i analiza uticaja prostornog i vremenskog profila snage vetra u projektovanju i eksploataciji vetroelektrana u elektroenergetskom sistemu (EES). Osnovni doprinosi radu su: 1. Razvijen je model za visinsku ekstrapolaciju merenih podataka o brzini vetra za procenu proizvodnje vetroelektrana. Model se bazira na metodi minimuma sume kvadrata odstupanja. Primenom ovog modela na set merenih podataka o brzini vetra sa najmanje tri visine dobija se sintetički set mernih podataka o brzini vetra na željenoj visini postavljanja vetroturbine. Estimirana baza mernih podataka se može koristiti kao ulazni set podataka za profesionalne softvere za regionalnu analizu resursa vetra, kao i procenu proizvodnje vetroelektrana. Algoritam je testiran korišćenjem realnih merenih podataka o brzini vetra sa tri lokacije koje karakterišu različiti topografski i klimatski uslovi. Sprovedene analize pokazuju da visinska ekstrapolacija merenih podataka o brzini vetra, prema predloženom modelu, daje bolje rezultate u proceni resursa energije vetra i smanjuje grešku u proceni proizvodnje vetroelektrana u odnosu na klasičnu primenu programa WAsP, koji standardno koristi podatke samo sa jedne merne visine. 2. Razvijen je model dinamičkog koeficijenta smicanja vetra. Visinski profil brzine vetra se u vetroenergetici opisuje sa dva modela i to stepenim zakonom i logaritamskim zakonom. Oba modela se praktično podjednako koriste u inženjerskoj praksi. Nedostatak oba modela je što u sebi sadrže fiksne parametre, koji ne omogućavaju dinamičko sagledavanje profila brzine vetra. Kombinujući ova dva pristupa u tezi je analitički raspregnut uticaj dominantnih faktora koji utiču na visinski profil brzine vetra. U razvijenom modelu visinski profil brzine vetra se modeluje sa koeficijentom smicanja vetra koji ima dve komponente: jednu statičku, koja je posledica hrapavosti terena, i drugu, vremenski promenljivu komponentu, koja uvažava dijabatske promene visinskog profila brzine vetra. Razvijeni model ima značajnu praktičnu 5 primenu u regionalnoj analizi potencijala energije vetra, kao i u proceni prosečne višegodišnje proizvodnje vetroelektrane na osnovu kratkoročnih merenja. Praktična primenljivost modela je testirana na realnim projektima vetroelektrana u regionu Banata i Pešterske visoravni...

The research subject in this dissertation is the modeling and analysis of the effects of spatial and temporal profiles of wind power in the design and operation of wind farms in power systems. The main contributions of this work are: 1. A new mathematical model for vertical extrapolation of the measurement data for wind speed taken at several measurement heights. The model is based on the method of least squares (LES). By applying the proposed model on the sets of measured data taken at least at three measurement heights, one can obtain a synthetic set of data at a desired height where the wind power potential is analyzed. The basic idea is that during the process of estimation of the wind power potential, the measurement data are first extrapolated by the proposed method, and then by using program WAsP the spatial extrapolation is carried out. The algorithm is tested by one year wind speed measurement data taken at three locations characterized by different topographies of the terrain and different climatic conditions. The performed analyses show that preprocessing of measurement data by the proposed method results in a better estimate of the wind power potential at a height which is greater than the measurement heights compared to that obtained by the standard application of WAsP program which makes use of measurement data taken at one measurement height. 2. A new model for dynamic wind shear coefficient. In wind energy, the height profile of the wind speed is usually described by two models based on exponential and logarithmic law. Both models are almost equally used in engineering practice. The principle lack of both models is that they contain fixed parameters, which do not allow the dynamic consideration of wind speed profiles. Combining these two approaches, the analytical decoupling of the dominant factors affecting the height profile of the wind speed is provided. In the developed model, height profile of the wind speed is modelled with two parameters, one static, which is a consequence of the terrain roughness, and other time-varying parameter, which is the consequence of atmospheric stability. The developed model has important practical applications in 8 regional analysis of wind energy potential, as well as in long term wind resource assessment. The practical applicability of the model was tested on real projects of wind farms in the region of Banat and the Pester plateau...