Spoljnotrgovinska neravnoteža privrede Srbije kao razvojno ograničenje

Abstract

U epicentru ovog istraživanja nalazi se spolјnotrgovinski deficit Srbije i to posmatran iz tri osnovne perspektive. Najpre smo krenuli od analize dinamike spolјnotrgovinske razmene u vremenskom periodu od 1987. do 2005. godine. Nakon toga usredsredili smo se na rasvetlјavanje strukturnih karakteristika spolјnotrgovinske razmene Srbije s cilјem da otkrijemo da li se jedan od uzroka spolјnotrgovinske neravnoteže krije u strukturnim distorzijama. Konačno, koristeći ekonometrijske tehnike pokušali smo da lociramo najvažnije determinante robnog izvoza, uvoza i spolјnotrgovinskog deficita. Rezultati istraživanja su pokazali da je u periodu opšteg ekonomskog i socijalnog kolapsa od 1987. do 2000. godine, uprkos oštrom smanjenju izvoza i uvoza, spolјnotrgovinski deficit povećan oko četiri puta. Takođe, tokom stabilizacionog perioda (2001-2005.), uporedo sa rastom robnog izvoza i naglim skokom robnog uvoza, spolјnotrgovinski deficit je uvećan približno tri puta. S druge strane, struktura izvoza pogoršana je u periodu od 1987 do 2005. godine i to zbog povećanja udela primarnih i smanjenja udela industrijskih i tehnološki-intenzivnih proizvoda, ali i zbog divergencije u odnosu na prosečnu strukturu izvoza razvijenih zemalјa i prosečnu strukturu uvoza zemalјa u koje Srbija najviše izvozi. Suprotne tendencije uočene su kada je u pitanju robni uvoz. Osim toga, na ozbilјne strukturne distorzije ukazuje i činjenica da je struktura izvoza u okviru koga Srbija iskazuje otkrivene komparativne prednosti lošija od strukture ukupnog izvoza. Dakle, privreda Srbije se integriše u svetsko tržište i tržište EU prevashodno na bazi troškovne konkurentnosti i komparativnih prednosti zasnovanih na faktorskoj raspoloživosti. Ujedno, robna koncentracija izvoza i uvoza ne predstavlјa opasnost za platni bilans zemlјe, dok bi visoka geografska koncentracija izvoza mogla da bude uzrok povećanja spolјnotrgovinskog deficita. Rezultati ekonometrijskog istraživanja su pokazali da su precenjenost realnog efektivnog deviznog kursa i industrijska proizvodnja najznačajnije determinante ukupnog robnog uvoza. Nakon njih slede realne bruto plate sa nešto slabijim, ali ipak značajnim uticajem. Još slabiji uticaj vrše efektivne carinske stope, cena nafte i ukupan robni izvoz, dok je najslabiji uticaj imalo srednjoročno i dugoročno zaduživanje u inostranstvu. Ove varijable su, izuzimajući robni izvoz, istovremeno i najvažnije determinante spolјnotrgovinskog deficita, na šta ukazuje i veoma visoka direktna korelacija uvoza i deficita. Konačno, spolјnotrgovinski deficit je u periodu 2001-2005. uglavnom bio finansiran tekućim transferima, srednjoročnim i dugoročnim kreditima i stranim direktnim investicijama.

In the core of this research there is the Serbian foreign trade deficit, viewed from three basic prospectives. Firstly, we started from the analysis of the international trade dynamics in the period between 1987 and 2005. Afterwards, we focused to structural characteristics of the Serbian foreign trade, aiming to discover whether one of the causes of foreign trade imbalance is hidden in structural distorsion. Finally, using econometric techniques, we have tried to locate most important determinants of import and export of goods, as well as foreign trade deficit. The results of the research have shown that during the period of general economic and social collapse between 1987 and 2000, dispite sharp fall in import and export, foreign trade deficit increased four times. Also, during stabilization period (2001-2005), along with increase in export of goods and sharp rise in import of goods, foreign trade deficit trebled. On the other hand, structure of export worsened in the period between 1987 and 2005, particularly because of the increase in share of primary and decrease in share of industrial and technology-intensive products, but also due to divergence in respect to average export structure of developed countries and average import structure of those countries towards which Serbia has majority of its export. Opposite tendencies have been noticed when talking about import of goods. Besides, serious structural distortions are also seen through the fact that export structure within which Serbia expresses revealed comparative advantages is worse than the structure of total export. So, Serbian economy is being integrated into the world market and the EU market predominantly on the basis of comparative advantages based on factor abundance. Also, commodity concentration of import and export does not represent danger for balance of payments, while high country concentration of export may be cause for the increase of foreign trade deficit. The results of econometric researches have shown that real effective foreign exchange rate and industrial production are the most significant determinants of total import of goods. These are followed by real gross wages with weaker, but still significant impact. Even weaker impact is made by effective tariff rates, price of oil and total export of goods, while the weakest impact is made by medium term and long term indebtedness abroad. These variables, except for export of goods, are at the same time most important determinants of foreign trade deficit, which is also pointed out by very high direct correlation between import and deficit. Finally, in the period between 2001-2005, foreign trade deficit was mostly financed with current transfers, medium term and long term loans and foreign direct investments