Uticaj promene biosfere u Panonskom basenu na lokalnu i regionalnu klimu tokom prolećnih, letnjih i jesenjih meseci

Abstract

Uticaj kopnene vegetacije na fizičke procese u površinskom i planetarnom graničnom sloju atmosfere je od velikog značaja za izučavanje vremenskih i klimatskih uslova u klimatskom sistemu Zemlje. Kopnena vegetacija, kao sastavni deo klimatskog sistema Zemlje, ima veliki uticaj na razmenu energije između kopna i atmosfere, a usled toga i značajnu ulogu u definisanju vremenskih i klimatskih obrazaca, kako na globalnom, tako i na regionalnom i lokalnom nivou. Međutim, usled konstantnog antropogenog uticaja, ali i zbog sopstvene dinamike, ovaj vegetacioni sistem se stalno menja i veoma ga je komplikovano predstaviti, kao i njegov uticaj na klimatski sistem Zemlje. Cilj ovog istraživanja je proučavanje uticaja regionalne promene vegetacije na sezonsku temperaturu vazduha u blizini Zemljine površine. Istraživanje je urađeno upotrebom globalnog klimatskog modela MPI-ESM (Max Planck Institute - Earth System Model). Oblast ovog istraživanja je smeštena u Panonskom basenu koji predstavlja jedan od mnogih regiona u kome je antropogeni uticaj na geofizičke promene životne sredine veliki. Vremenski okvir unutar koga su rađeni numerički eksperimenti MPI-ESM modelom je pokrivao period od 2002. do 2011. godine. Izmena zastupljenosti tipova šumske, travnate i poljoprivredne vegetacije koja je izvedena u istraživanju nedvosmisleno pokazuje da je došlo do povećanja dekadnih vrednosti srednjih sezonskih temperatura vazduha u blizini Zemljine površine (T2m) i temperature vazduha u nižim slojevima atmosfere (Tlev), kako na lokalnom tako i na regionalnom nivou. Međutim, došlo je i do značajnih promena u trendovima srednjih sezonskih vrednosti: temperature vazduha u blizini Zemljine površine (YT2m), fluksa osetne toplote (YFh), fluksa latentne toplote (YFl), površinskog albeda (Ya) i oblačnosti (YOb). Postignut je trend hlađenja vazduha u letnjoj sezoni, dok je u prolećnoj postignut trend zagrevanja prizemnog vazduha, a za jesenju sezonu dobijeni su trendovi zagrevanja i hlađenja vazduha. Promena trenda YT2m je uglavnom dobijena usled promene u površinskom albedu, kao i usled promene oblačnosti. Trend hlađenja vazduha za letnju sezonu je zastupljen uglavnom u severnim i centralnim oblastima Panonskog basena dok je u južnoj oblasti zabeležen trend zagrevanja. Ovim istraživanjem je postignut postavljeni cilj, odnosno potvrđeno je da postoji značajan antropogeni uticaj na promenu klimatskih uslova, kako na lokalnom, tako i na regionalnom nivou, usled geofizičkih uticaja na kopnenu vegetaciju. Pokazalo se da izmenom vegetacije na površini možemo ublažiti zagrevanje u letnjoj sezoni, kao i da ubrzamo povećanje prizemne temperature vazduha u prolećnoj sezoni, dok je za jesenju sezonu postignuto i hlađenje i zagrevanje.

The influence of terrestrial vegetation on developments in the surface and planetary boundary layer of the atmosphere has great importance for the study of weather and climatic conditions in the Earth's climate system. Terrestrial vegetation as an integral part of the Earth's climate system has a great influence on the exchange of energy between the land and the atmosphere and consequently a significant role in defining weather and climate patterns globally, regionally and locally. However, due to the constant anthropogenic impact, this vegetation system is constantly changing and it is very complicated to present it during research as well as its impact on the Earth's Climate System. The aim of this study is to study the impact of regional vegetation change on the seasonal air temperature near the Earth's surface and was performed using the global climate model MPI-ESM (Max Planck Institute - Earth System Model). The region of our research is located in the Pannonian basin and is one of many regions in which the anthropogenic impact on geophysical changes in the environment is great. The research was conducted for a ten-year period from 2002 to 2011. The change in the concentration of CF types that we performed in our study unequivocally shows that it has led to an increase in decadal values of mean seasonal air temperatures: near the Earth's surface (T2m) and air temperature in the lower atmosphere (Tlev) both locally and at the regional level. However, there were also significant changes in the trends of average seasonal values: air temperature near the Earth's surface (YT2m), sensory heat flux (YFh), latent heat flux (YFl), surface albedo (Ya), cloud cover (YOb) and soil water content (YSW). We managed to achieve the trend of air cooling in the summer season, while in the spring we got the trend of heating the ground air, and for the autumn season we got the trend of heating and cooling the air. The change in the YT2m trend was mainly due to a change in surface albedo as well as due to a change in cloud cover. The trend of air cooling that we received for the summer season is represented mainly in the northern and central areas of the Pannonian basin, while for the southern area we received a trend of warming. For the spring season, we mainly obtained a mean positive linear correlation between the mean monthly values of air temperature T2m and the mean monthly values of the sensory heat flux Fh. For the summer season we mostly got that medium and strong linear correlation while for the autumn season we got weak positive and weak negative linear correlation. Through our research, we have achieved the set goal and shown that there is a significant anthropogenic impact on climate change at both local and regional levels. We have shown that we can mitigate warming in the summer season as well as accelerate the increase in ground air temperature in the spring season while we have achieved both cooling and warming for the autumn season...