Višedimenzionalni pristup proračunu merodavnih velikih voda na sektorima reka sa pritokama
Докторанд
Ilić, AleksandraМентор
Trajković, SlavišaЧланови комисије
Milićević, DraganBudinski, Ljubomir
Gocić, Milan
Метаподаци
Приказ свих података о дисертацијиСажетак
Planning and design of flood mitigation and protection measures are
based on a probabilistic assessment of flood wave parameters.
Defining the design floods on rivers is necessary for various
engineering needs, where the need to determine the design water
levels in order to design flood protection system, which includes
facilities such as embankments, walls and the like, is the most
prominent. For this purpose, the procedure of adopting the maximum
river flow of a certain return period (flood wave peak) estimated on
the basis of historical data on maximum annual flows has been
established.
If river reach include tributaries, such an approach cannot be justified,
because at least two flows (mainstem and tributary) have to be
considered. Accordingly, the complexity of flood occurrence and its
assessment require the linking of marginal distributions of multiple
variables in order to define a unique distribution law that describes
the flood.
The main aim of doctoral dissert...ation is twofold: to elaborate a
procedure that will define the flood exceedance probability in the
analyzed area within a multidimensional probability space and to
develop a methodology for defining flood coincidence in the
mainstem reach with its main tributaries and thus determine design
floods in order to design the flood control system in the confluence
area.
Mathematical models are based on (1) two-dimensional probability
distribution (PROIL model) and (2) the copula function
(Archimedean class of copulas), and fitted to a practical application in
a two-dimensional probability distribution space. In case of random
variables, simultaneous quantitative characteristics of flood wave
(flood flow) hydrographs for the mainstem and a tributary are
considered.
The paper discusses the specific reach of the Danube, from the
Hungarian-Serbian border to the city of Smederevo, which
encompasses three significant tributaries – the Drava, the Tisa, and
the Sava.