Razvoj baze podataka za upravljanje rizicima na radu vatrogasno-spasilačkih jedinica u uslovima multirizika

Abstract

Considering the relatively small body of research into the relationship between occupational multi-risk and risk associated with the operations of fire and rescue units, the aim of this doctoral dissertation is to determine the dependence of occupational risk to fire and rescue unit members on the extent of multi-risk in risk events and to determine to what extent the outcome of risk events (injury/avoided injury) influences the modelling of occupational risk assessment for fire and rescue units. The presented research was conducted in three fire and rescue units in northern Kosovo and Metohija from 2014 to 2018 and it included occupational injury analyses, as well as risk events that were never officially recorded and in which injuries to fire and rescue unit members were avoided. The first step was to determine which factors influence the outcome of fire and rescue interventions, after which the contributory factors were included in the creation of predictive models using logistic regression. Discriminant analysis was used to determine a set of variables that differentiates the most between two defined case categories; the determined predictors were then used to obtain the discriminant function. Logistic regression analysis and the creation of a model for injury risk assessment were the final step in the analysis. Two predictive models were created (one predicting only interventions resulting in injuries and the other predicting interventions both with injuries and with nearly-avoided injuries) and the differences between the models were identified. The analysis determined which factors contribute to injuries or to situations in which injuries are highly likely, and it also showed the importance of performing risk assessments not only based on situations resulting in injuries but also based on situations in which injuries were likely to happen but did not. The obtained model can be used to calculate the risk and probability of injury for every specific situation. The results obtained in this research can be used to identify the key factors influencing the operational safety of fire and rescue unit members and they can also enable a more precise identification of risk events, more reliable risk assessment, improved understanding of ‘accident mechanisms’, as well as the creation of a more comprehensive database for efficient occupational risk management of fire and rescue unit members. The scientific contribution of the research presented in this doctoral dissertation is represented by the methodological approach to the prevention and reduction of occupational risk associated with fire and rescue unit operations for the purpose of increasing the level of firefighters’ safety during interventions in multi-risk conditions.