Transmisija monetarne politike na realna ekonomska kretanja
Committee membersĐurović-Todorović, Jadranka
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Central banks of the countries, by performing their basic functions, contribute to the well-being of the entire economy. One of their major functions is to conduct a monetary policy that influences both the economy and the population. This process takes place through monetary transmission channels. The effectiveness of monetary transmission channels varies between countries and it is conditioned by a number of factors that characterize the country's economic and financial system. In accordance with these factors, the monetary authorities make the choice of an adequate monetary strategy. Each monetary strategy has a number of advantages and disadvantages. In today's context, a large number of countries have chosen an inflation targeting strategy because of a number of positive macroeconomic effects, as is the case in the countries which are analyzed in this paper. In order to achieve monetary policy goals that are set, the central bank takes certain measures and uses monetary policy ins...truments. Using monetary policy instruments, the central bank has effects on macroeconomic flows. However, these instruments influence indirectly and with some time delay on predefined goals. One of the most common goals is price stability. Because of these limitations in the operation of monetary policy it is essential to identify the monetary transmission channels in each country, so creators could determine the optimal monetary regime and could predict the impact of monetary policy on the real economy. In this paper, using the vector autoregression model (VAR model), we performed an analysis of the efficiency of monetary transmission channels in selected developed and developing countries (United Kingdom, Canada, United States of America (USA), Mexico, Chile, Brazil and Serbia). This empirical analysis enabled to determine the dominant monetary transmission channels in observed countries. The results of the analysis provide guidance in taking the necessary steps to the monetary authorities, so it can reduce the time lag and eliminate restrictions on the transmission of monetary impulses to real economic quantities. However, it should be borne in mind that the efficiency of monetary transmission channels not only varies between countries, but also changes over time within a country, depending on changes in the economic system.