Reforma službi bezbednosti u Srbiji 2000-2017

Abstract

Ova disertacija nudi odgovor na pitanje zbog čega, 17 godina od otpočinjanja demokratske transformacije, službe bezbednosti u Srbiji ne samo da nisu reformisane u potpunosti već je napredak ostvaren u pojedinim oblastima reforme bezbednosno-obaveštajnog sistema skroz urušen, te postoji jak trend povratka na staro. Autor koristi koncept reforme sektora bezbednosti i iz njega izvedene elemente reforme službi bezbednosti, koji služi da se utvrdi željeno stanje u transformaciji službi bezbednosti iz tajne policije u savremene bezbednosno-obaveštajne službe. U radu se koristi i istorijski institucionalizam, koji omogućava da se istraže uslovi, događaji, procesi i akteri koji su uticali na tokove, ishode i domete reforme službi bezbednosti u Srbiji 2000–2017. godine. Posebna pažnja posvećuje se utvrđivanju značaja nasleđa, neformalnih institucija, interesa i odnosa moći između aktera, kao i ideacionih faktora u oblikovanju njihovih odluka u ključnim momentima političkih promena, odnosno kritičnim tačkama reforme službi bezbednosti. Nalazi disertacije potvrdili su glavnu postavku istorijskog institucionalizma: institucije se teško menjaju, a promena službi bezbednosti, kao veoma zatvorenih i konzervativnih aktera koji su navikli na neformalnosti, još je teža. Da bi do promene došlo, neophodno je da politički akteri preduzmu sveobuhvatne i korenite reforme u skladu s konceptom reforme službi bezbednosti, i to u ranim fazama kritičnih tačaka, jer rane odluke utiču na dalji tok i domete reforme. Svaka nepotpuna promena službi bezbednosti omogućava opstanak starih neformalnih pravila koja otežavaju buduće opsežnije promene, te u nepovoljnim političkim uslovima ugrožavaju i napredak ostvaren u pojedinim oblastima reforme bezbednosno-obaveštajnog sistema.

This dissertation seeks to explain not only why Serbia’s security services have not been comprehensively reformed – 17 years since the onset of the country’s transition to democracy – but also why progress achieved through certain aspects of security and intelligence service reform has been completely undone, resulting in a powerful regressive trend. In order to establish the desired outcomes of transforming the security services from a secret police force into modern security and intelligence services, the author relies on the concept of security sector reform and elements of security service reform derived therefrom. The paper also draws on historical institutionalism, facilitating exploration of the conditions, events, processes and actors that have influenced the trends, outcomes and scope of security sector reform in Serbia from 2000 to 2017. Particular attention is paid to determining the importance of institutional heritage, informal institutions, interests and power relations between actors, as well as the ideological factors that shaped their decisions at key moments of political change – i.e. during junctures critical for security sector reform. The dissertation’s findings confirm the main premise of historical institutionalism: that institutions resist change, and none more so than those as closed, conservative and accustomed to informality as the security services. For change to be enacted, political actors must embark upon comprehensive and deep-rooted reforms that adhere to the principles of security service reform. And they must do so early on in the transition process, since decisions made ahead of time shape the further course and scope of reform. Every incomplete transformation of the security services allows their old, informal habits to persist, hindering more profound change in the future and, in times of political turmoil, endangering the progress achieved in particular aspects of security and intelligence service reform.