A model for air transport market competition assessment : airline and alliance perspective

Abstract

The thesis deals with several aspects of competition in long-haul market that is characterized by the presence of full-service network carriers that are typically members of large alliance groups and low-cost carrier that operates independently from any cooperation agreement. The thesis focuses on transatlantic market as one of the most lucrative airline market in the world characterized by the great number of full-service network carriers and recent influx of few low-cost carriers. In order to properly investigate the impact of low-cost carrier on full-service network carriers on competitive routes, three models were developed in the thesis. The first model presents the original econometric model designed to examine the impact of low-cost carrier on full-service network carrier’s price and number of passengers in the predefined set of long-haul city-pair markets. As airlines aim to obtain as larger portion of the market as possible, the second model in the thesis was developed to predict the airline market share on the routes characterized by the presence of low-cost carrier, as one of the competitor in long-haul city-pair markets. The model is based on the application of fuzzy logic. Taking into account the key factors that determine airline market share (price and frequency of service), the proposed market share model can provide satisfactory results without taking into consideration passengers’ perceptions towards different aspects of airline service. Measuring the airline efficiency becomes an inevitable step in assessing the airline competitive advantage. The fuzzy-based DEA CCR model is developed including the set of input and output variables carefully derived to reflect the current market outlook. The results show that major airlines which operate within alliances are generally more competitive than other mid-sized carriers, primarily due to the benefits derived from the economy of density.

Doktorska disertacija razmatra nekoliko aspekata konkurencije na tržištu dugolinijskog saobraćaja na kome su prisutne kako tradicionalne aviokompanije, koje su uglavnom i članice neke od vodećih alijansi, tako i niskotarifne aviokompanije, koje posluju nezavisno od bilo kakvog korporativnog udruživanja. Fokus disertacije je na severnoatlantskom tržištu koje se ubraja u najatraktivnija tržišta na svetu na kome je tradicionalno prisutan veliki broj tradicionalnih aviokompanija, ali od skoro, i neznatan broj niskotarifnih aviokompanija. U doktorskoj disertaciji su razvijena tri modela sa ciljem da se detaljno utvrdi uticaj koji niskotarifni prevozilac ima na svoje konkurente, tradicionalne prevozioce, na dugolinijskim rutama. Prvi model predstavlja originalno razvijeni ekonometrijski model koji za cilj ima utvrđivanje uticaja niskotarifnog prevozioca na cene karata i broj prevezenih putnika tradicionalnog prevozioca na unapred definisanom skupu dugolinijskih ruta koje povezuju određene parove gradova. S obzirom na to da je jedan od osnovih ciljeva svake aviokompanije da ostvari što veći udeo na tržištu, u doktorskoj disertaciji je razvijen robusni model za predikciju učešća na tržištu aviokompanija koje obavljaju saobraćaj na dugolinijskim linijama na kojima postoji konkurencija od strane niskotarifnog prevozioca. Model je baziran na primeni fazi logike. Uzimajući u obzir ključne faktore koji određuju udeo na tržištu posmatrane aviokompanije, predloženi model daje zadovoljavajuće rezultate bez potrebe uzimanja u obzir preferencije putnika prema određenim aspektima usluge. Merenje efikasnosti aviokompanija predstavlja neizostavni stepenik u oceni konkurentske prednosti posmatrane aviokompanije. Fazi DEA CCR model razvijen u ovoj disertaciji je baziran na pažljivo izabranom skupu ulaznih i izlaznih promenljivih kako bi što bolje opisalo trenutno stanje na evropskom tržištu. Rezultati ukazuju da su velike tradicionalne aviokompanije, koje ujedno predstvaljaju i stožere alijansi, konkurentnije od manjihtradicionalnih aviokomapanija, pre svega zbog benefita ostvarenih kroz efekat ekonomije obima.