Numeričko modelovanje faktora koji utiču na propadanje malih i srednjih preduzeća proizvodne delatnosti

Abstract

Ova doktorska disertacija ima za cilj formiranje originalnog numeričkog modela za identifikaciju i procenu uticaja faktora koji utiču na propadanje malih i srednjih preduzeća (MSP) u Srbiji. U polaznim poglavljima disertacije ukazano je na značaj MSP i njihov položaj u Srbiji, kao i na faktore koje mogu da ugroze poslovanje MSP. Formiran je strukturni model kako bi se procenio uticaj pojedinih faktora na nivo oporavka MSP nakon propadanja. Nakon toga, primenom metode višekriterijumskog odlučivanja, zasnovanog na PROMETHEE II metodi, sprovedeno je rangiranje pojedinih faktora prema različitim kriterijumima u cilju sagledavanja stavova preduzetnika/vlasnika MSP o uticaju pojedinih faktora prema različitim kriterijumima. Potom je ispitan uticaj demografskih karakteristika preduzetnika/vlasnika MSP na ostvareni nivo oporavka nakon propadanja i formiran profil uspešnih i neuspešnih preduzetnika. Rezultat ove doktorske disertacije je numerički model za identifikaciju i procenu uticaja faktora propadanja MSP. Numerički model se može koristiti za poboljšanje položaja MSP u Srbiji, kao i za formiranje merne skale za procenu „zdravstvenog stanja“ postojećih MSP.

This doctor's thesis aims at forming the original numeric model for identifying and evaluating failure factors of the small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in Serbia. In the initial chapters of the dissertation, the importance and the position of the SMEs in Serbia, as well as the factors which can jeopardise business dealings of SMEs were identified. Structural model was formed in order to evaluate the influence of certain factors on the level of recovery of SMEs after its failure. After that, using multicriteria decision-making method, which is based on the PROMETHEE II method, the ranking of individual factors was carried out according to different criteria, with the purpose of perceiving the attitudes of the SME entrepreneurs/owners about the impact of the individual factors according to different criteria. Finally, the impact of demographic characteristics of SME entrepreneurs/owners on the achieved level of recovery after the failure was also examined, as well as a formed profile of successful and unsuccessful entrepreneurs. The result of this thesis is a numeric model for identifying and evaluating failure factors of SMEs. The numeric model can be used to improve the position of SMEs in Serbia, and also to form a measuring scale for evaluating “a health condition” of the existing SMEs.