Modeli rizika za procenu nivoa vibracija tehničkih sistema

Abstract

Istraživanje modela rizika predstavlja stalnu proveru parametara vibracija sistema, na osnovu kojih se može prognozirati vreme zamene komponenata pre nego što dođe do njihovih otkaza. Model se zasniva na stalnom praćenju parametara stanja u cilju eliminacije slabih mesta na tehničkom sistemu. Na taj način će biti ustanovljeni modeli za predviđanje i sprečavanje otkaza u radu tehničkog sistema. Karakteristika ovog modela je u neprekidnom praćenju stanja tehničkog sistema u procesu eksploatacije i iznalaženje uporednog modela za procenu rizika, prema ISO standardima. Istraživanje je imalo za cilj da se izvrši: procena dinamičkog stanja, osetljivosti i sklonosti rotirajućih elemenata hidro-elektrane (HE) ka debalansu, kao i procenu sigurnosti funkcionisanja vratila i rotora turbinskog dela uređaja HE sa aspekta minimalnog rizika od pojave zastoja.

Research into risk models is a constant check of the system's vibration parameters, based on which the time of replacing components can be predicted before their failure occurs. The model is based on continuous monitoring of state parameters in order to eliminate weak spots in the technical system. In this way, models will be established for predicting and preventing failure in the work, technical system. The characteristic of this model is the continuous monitoring of the state of the technical system in the exploitation process and the finding of a comparative risk assessment model, according to ISO standards. The aim of the research was to evaluate the dynamic state, sensitivity and tendency of the rotating elements of the hydroelectric power plant (HE), to the imbalance, as well as to assess the safety of the functioning of the shaft and rotor turbine part of the HE unit from the aspect of minimal risk of occurrence of delays.