Uticaj korupcije na ekonomski rast

Abstract

The doctoral dissertation contributes to the relatively scarce research on the time interdependence between corruption and economic growth, with the aim to precisely determine the time frame within which the influences between these two phenomena are the most intensive. Drawing upon previous studies on the character of the influence, as well as the directon of causality between the two variables, the dissertation examines the variations of the effects of corruption on economic growth, in order to determine whether these effects depend on the time period in which they are analyzed. For the purpose of this research, data on the Corruption Perceptions Index and the value of gross domestic product have been used, on a sample of 40 countries. The relationship between corruption and gross domestic product has been tested in precisely determined periods of time, using methodological instruments that quantitatively indicate to what extent the decreasing levels of corruption are followed by the increase in the gross domestic product. The results of the analysis indicate the intensity of the impacts of corruption on economic growth in the short, medium and long term. According to the results, the negative effects of corruption on economic growth are most intensive in a time interval of 6 to 10 years. In this regard, the negative effects of corruption on economic growth are stronger with the increase of the time period in which the relationship is observed. By specifying a precise time delay after which changes in the level of corruption cause changes in the real economic variables, the research contributes to the existing theoretical discussions about the relationship between these phenomena. The research represents a solid ground for further investigation of the time dimension of the relationship between corruption and economic growth, while the practical implications of the results relate to the domain of the anti-corruption policy. The time frames specified in this analysis suggest that the effects of anticorruption measures can be observed with a delay of 6-10 years, i.e. that visible results in terms of economic growth can be expected after this period, provided that other preconditions which the effectiveness of the anti-corruption measures depends on, are fulfilled.