Model za donošenje odluka u procesima prepoznavanja tipa funkcije pouzdanosti brodskih postrojenja

Abstract

Doktorska disertacija se bavi aktuelnom problematikom donošenja odluka u procesu prepoznavanja tipa funkcije pouzdanosti brodskih postrojenja. U uvodnom delu doktorata objašnjeni su motivi za rad na doktorskoj disertaciji. Motivacija je proizašla iz nastojanja da se unapredi teorija i praksa donošenja odluka u prepoznavanju tipa funkcije pouzdanosti brodskih postrojenja, koja se zasniva na analitič kim i matematič ko-statistič ikim metodama. Pristup za rešavanje tog problema, koji je predložen u doktoratu, svodi se na teorijsku analizu radova i tehnologija, kao i na primenu sistemske dinamike i simulacione tehnologije u eksploatacionom istraž ivanju, a koje se bave problematikom klasifikacije signala sa pragom za donošenje odluka o pouzdanosti brodskih postrojenja. To je uzrokovalo da se autor ove disertacije bavi istraživanjem novih metoda koje se mogu primeniti u oblasti pouzdanosti brodskih postrojenja. U doktoratu su razvijeni matematički i verbalni modeli ponašanja sistema pomoću signala na izlazu sistema za nekoliko slučajeva. U zaključku disertacije sistematično se interpretiraju rezultati istraživanja, potvrđuju hipoteze i komentarišu teorijska i praktična rešenja, daje se pregled mogućnosti daljih istraživanja rešenja koja su predložena disertacijom. Na primeru merenih i separiranih signala eksperimentalno, pomoću simulacione metodologije i sistemske dinamike, verifikovana je hipoteza statistič ke nezavisnosti izvornih signala. Sintezom teorijskih i analitičkih saznanja i numerički potkrepljenim praktič nim rezultatima (simulacijama), težilo se osmišljavanju preporuka za usklađivanje procesa donošenja odluka na bazi prepoznavanja oblika pouzdanosti sa ukupnom sigurnošću brodskih postrojenja, na način kako se do sada nije činilo.

This doctoral thesis deals with up-to-date problems related to decision making in the process of recognizing forms of reliability of marine plants. Marine propulsion plant is very complex and includes a set of interrelated and dependent subsystems with a large number of components. The reliability and availability of such complex system depends on reliability of its all components. In the introductory part motives for work on this thesis are explained. Motivation has come out of intention to develop the theory and practice of decision making in recognizing forms of reliability of marine plants based on analytical and mathematical-statistical methods. The approach to solving the problem, that is proposed in the thesis, corresponds to the theoretical analysis of works and technologies as well as to the application of system dynamics and simulation technology in exploitation research that again deal with the problems of classification of signals with the level of decision making on the reliability of marine plants. The above mentioned has lead the author to devote himself to researching new methods that can be applied in the field of reliability of marine plants. The thesis presents developed mathematical and verbal models of system behaviour with the use of signals observed at the system output for several cases. In the conclusion of the thesis results of the research are systematically interpreted, hypotheses are proved and theoretical and practical solutions commented on. Furthermore, a range of possibilities for further research of solutions proposed in the thesis are presented. On the example of measured and separated signals the hypothesis of statistical independence of original signals has been verified experimentally using simulation methodology and system dynamics. Synthesis of theoretical and analytical newly gained knowledge and numerically supported practical results (simulations) have been used with the aim to reach reccomendations for matching the process of decision making based on recognizing forms of reliability with total safety of marine plants in a manner not used so far.