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dc.contributor.advisorObradović, Saša
dc.contributor.otherĐorđević, Miroslav
dc.contributor.otherVeselinović, Petar
dc.contributor.otherCvetanović, Slobodan
dc.creatorLojanica, Nemanja M.
dc.date.accessioned2019-03-25T12:53:55Z
dc.date.available2019-03-25T12:53:55Z
dc.date.available2020-07-03T15:03:18Z
dc.date.issued2018-11-07
dc.identifier.urihttp://eteze.kg.ac.rs/application/showtheses?thesesId=6451
dc.identifier.urihttp://nardus.mpn.gov.rs/handle/123456789/10929
dc.identifier.urihttps://fedorakg.kg.ac.rs/fedora/get/o:1047/bdef:Content/download
dc.description.abstractUobičajena je praksa da se prilikom iskazivanja uspešnosti nacionalne ekonomije, kao mera privredne aktivnosti koristi stopa ekonomskog rasta. Sa tim u vezi, postizanje visokih i stabilnih stopa privrednog rasta nameće se kao ultimativni cilj, naročito u zemljama u razvoju. Kako bi se unapredila dinamika rasta, neophodno je adekvatno upravljanje faktorima koji ga determinišu. Modeliranje povezanosti ključnih makroekonomskih varijabli je od višestrukog značaja, u kontekstu dinamiziranja stopa privrednog rasta. Predmet doktorske disertacije odnosi se na ispitivanje ključnih faktora koji generišu privredni rast. Predmet istraživanja je usmeren i na utvrđivanje potencijalnih veza makroekonomskih varijabli i ekonomskog rasta. U fokusu pažnje se nalaze instrumenti monetarne i fiskalne politike, odnosno njihova uloga u postizanju makroekonomske stabilnosti i osnaživanju performansi rasta. Osnovni cilj istraživanja jeste da se na bazi relevantne teorijsko-metodološke i empirijske analize, ispita statistička značajnost i jačina uticaja odgovarajućih determinanti privrednog rasta na ukupnu ekonomsku aktivnost. Teorijskom analizom i empirijskim testiranjem osnovnih modela privrednog rasta, ustanovljeno je da humani kapital, reprezentovan u vidu ulaganja u obrazovanje, kao i sektor za istraživanje i razvoj, predstavljaju generatore privrednog rasta kako u razvijenim, tako i u zemljama u razvoju. Pored toga, na primeru Republike Srbije je pokazano da je održivi ekonomski rast u dugom roku, moguć na bazi povećanog udela investicija u strukturi agregatne tražnje, pri čemu veći udeo istih treba da bude baziran na domaćim izvorima finansiranja. Imajući u vidu da ekonomska politika predstavlja neophodan instrument za postizanje makroekonomske stabilnosti, na primeru Republike Srbije su ispitani efekti monetarne i fiskalne politike na privredni rast, dok je na primeru zemalja Jugoistočne Evrope ispitana međuzavisnost ključnih makroekonomskih pokazatelja. Ključni rezultat modeliranja makroekonomskih varijabli odnosi se na pozitivan uticaj inflacije na privredni rast, i u kratkom i u dugom roku. Stoga, pred nosiocima monetarne politike u zemljama Jugoistočne Evrope je veoma osetljiv zadatak, koji se odnosi na ciljano povećanje ekonomske aktivnosti uz istovremenu konzistentnost sa održavanjem stabilne i niske inflacije u dugom roku. Analiziranjem transmisionog mehanizma monetarne politike u privredi Srbije, ustanovljeno je da devizni kurs i dalje predstavlja osnovni kanal transmisije, kao i da eksterni šokovi vrše značajan uticaj na kretanje privredne aktivnosti. Posmatrajući fiskalni aspekt, pokazano je da povećano učešće državnih izdataka u strukturi agregatne tražnje, ne vrši trajni i pozitivni uticaj na ekonomski rast. Kao potencijalni razlozi, nameću se slaba produktivnost javne administracije, kao i viši nivo koruptivnih aktivnosti. Na kraju, treba istaći da dobijeni empirijski rezultati treba da pruže koristan okvir donosiocima ekonomskih odluka u zemljama u razvoju, prilikom koncipiranja odgovarajuće sektorske strukture nacionalne ekonomije. Pored toga, empirijski rezultati u vezi sa efektima i razvojnim funckijama monetarne i fiskalne politike u Republici Srbiji, mogu poslužiti kao preporuke nosiocima ekonomske politike za sprovođenje odgovarajućih mera, u cilju osnaživanja performansi privrednog rasta.sr
dc.description.abstractABSTRACT: It is a common practice to use economic growth rates as a measure of economic activities when the performance of a national economy is to be presented. Thus, the ultimate goal, especially for developing countries, has been to achieve high and stable economic growth rates. Such goals can be reached only by adequately managing the factors which determine the growth. The modelling of relations among key macroeconomic variables has numerous advantages. The doctoral dissertation aims at examination of key macroeconomic variables which influence economic growth and to determine their potential links. The main emphasis is on the instruments of monetary and fiscal policy and their role in achieving macroeconomic stability and enhancing growth performances. The main goal of the research is to determine statistical significance and strength of impact which the determinants of economic growth have based on the overall economic activity with relevant theoretical, methodological and empirical analysis. Theoretical analysis and empirical testing have shown that human capital, represented as investments in education, research and development sector, are generators of economic growth in both developed and developing countries. In addition, the research has shown that in case of the Republic of Serbia sustainable long-term economic growth is possible with an increased share of investments in the structure of aggregate demand when such an increase is based on domestic sources of financing. Since economic policy is a necessary instrument for achieving macroeconomic stability, the study has examined the effects of monetary and fiscal policy on economic growth on the example of the Republic of Serbia while the interdependence between macroeconomic indicators has been examined in case of the countries of Southeast Europe. The main finding of the modeling of macroeconomic variables is the positive impact of inflation on economic growth both in short and long term. Thus the monetary policy makers in the countries of this region have an extremely sensitive task which requires targeted increase of economic activity with simultaneous consistency in maintaining stable and low inflation in the long run. The analysis of the transmission mechanisms of monetary policy in Serbian economy has shown that foreign exchange rate has still been the main channel of transmission and that external shocks have a significant impact on the dynamics of economic activity. The analysis of the fiscal aspect has revealed that an increased share of country’s expenses in the structure of aggregate demand does not have a permanent and positive influence on economic growth. The potential reasons are the low productivity of the public administration and a higher level of corruptive activities. Finally, it should be emphasized that empirically obtained results should provide a valuable frame to fiscal policy makers in developing countries when the concepts of sector structure in a national economy are being created. Besides, empirical results concerning effects and development functions of both monetary and fiscal policy in the Republic of Serbia can serve as a recommendations to policy makers in implementing and managing adequate measures in enhancing economic growth performances.en
dc.formatapplication/pdf
dc.languagesr
dc.publisherУниверзитет у Крагујевцу, Економски факултетsr
dc.rightsopenAccessen
dc.sourceУниверзитет у Крагујевцуsr
dc.subjectmakreokonomske varijablesr
dc.subjectmacroeconomic variablesen
dc.subjecteconomic growthen
dc.subjecteconomic policyen
dc.subjectdeveloping countriesen
dc.subjectRepublic of Serbiaen
dc.subjecteconometric modelsen
dc.subjectprivredni rastsr
dc.subjectekonomska politikasr
dc.subjectzemlje u razvojusr
dc.subjectRepublika Srbijasr
dc.subjectekonometrijski modelisr
dc.titleModeliranje veza makroekonomskih pokazatelja i ekonomska politika u funkciji dinamiziranja privrednog rastasr
dc.typedoctoralThesis
dc.rights.licenseBY-NC-ND
dc.identifier.fulltexthttp://nardus.mpn.gov.rs/bitstream/id/46647/Nemanja_Lojanica_Ekonomski.pdf
dc.identifier.fulltexthttp://nardus.mpn.gov.rs/bitstream/id/46646/Disertacija.pdf


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