Modeli predikcije ishoda borbi vrhunskih takmičara u rvanju grčko-rimskim i slobodnim stilom
Models of fight outcome prediction for top athletes in greco-roman and freestyle wrestling
Metadata
Show full item recordAbstract
U retrospektivnoj eksplorativnoj studiji sa paralelnim grupama, na uzorku
borbi rvača grčko-rimskim i slobodnim stilom (n=268), koji su nastupili na završnom
olimpijskom turniru (OI London 2012.), ispitana je struktura prostora u kojem se
odvija takmičarska aktivnost i utvrdjene su razlike izmedju subuzoraka formiranih
pod kriterijumima stila, težinske kategorije i ishoda borbe. Svaki nastup takmičara bio
je opisan sa 40 varijabli, u kojima su rezultati prikupljeni faktografskom metodom i
analizom video zapisa borbe.
Rezultati ukazuju da se takmičarska aktivnost u rvanju, bez obzira na disciplinu u
kojoj rvači nastupaju, može posmatrati u jedinstvenom prostoru tehničko-taktičke
aktivnosti, kojeg definiše pet latentnih dimenzija interpretiranih kao: takmičarska
efikasnost, morfološke dimenzionalnosti, trajanje meča, sporne tehničko-taktičke
aktivnosti tokom meča i povrede sportskih pravila u takmičarskoj aktivnosti.
Upoređivanje subuzoraka prema težinskim kategorijama kod rvača grčko-ri...mskim
stilom su konstatovane razlike u sedam, a kod rvača slobodnim stilom, u trinaest
varijabli.
Pobednici i poraženi u grčko-rimskom stilu razlikovali su se u osamnaest varijabli,
dok su u slobodnom stilu ove razlike su bile značajne u četrnaest varijabli. Rezultati
ukazuju da pobednike u grčko-rimskom stilu karakteriše takmičarska efikasnost u
elementima odbrane i napada u parteru, dok pobednike u slobodnom stilu
karakterišu elementi kojima se osvajaju bodovi u stojećem stavu, kao i u klinču.
Uporedjivanje stilova u multivarijatnom modelu ukazuje da slobodni stil obiluje
većom dinamikom i brojem izvedenih tehničko-taktičkih elemenata tokom borbe, u
odnosu na grčko-rimski stil, u kojem više do izražaja dolaze morfološki pokazatelji.
Metodom binarne logističke regresione analize formirani su modeli predikcije ishoda
mečeva, koji su prikazali zavidne prediktivne sposobnosti. Od analiziranih varijabli
najznačajniji doprinos pozitivnom ishodu meča u grčko-rimskom stilu, imalo su
pokazatelji takmičarske efikasnosti u odbrani i napadu u parteru. Kod rvača
slobodnim stilom najznačajniji doprinos je imala efikasnost izvodjenja tehnika u
stojećem stavu, zatim osvajanje poena u klinču i na kraju efikasnost izvodjenja tehnika u parteru.
In a retrospective exploratory study with parallel groups, on a fight
sample of Greco-Roman and Freestyle wrestlers (n = 268), performing at the final
Olympic tournament (London, 2012), the structure of the space in which the
competitive activity occurred was examined and the differences between
subsamples formed under the criteria of style, weight category and the fight outcome
were determined. Each contestant's performance was described trough 40
variables, in which the results were collected using factographic method and
analyzing the fight video records.
The results indicate that the competitive activity in wrestling, regardless of the
discipline in which the wrestlers perform, can be observed in the unique space of
technical and tactical actions, which defines five latent dimensions interpreted as:
competitive efficiency, morphological dimensionality, the duration of the match,
disputed technical and tactical actions during the match and competition rules
violations in sports acti...vities.
Comparing subsamples according to weight categories in Greco-Roman wrestlers
differences were noted in seven, and in Freestyle wrestlers in thirteen variables.
Winners and defeated in the Greco-Roman style differed in eighteen variables, while
in Free style these differences were significant in fourteen variables. The results
indicate that the winners in Greco-Roman style are characterized by competitive
efficiency in the defense and the attack elements on the ground, while the winners in
Free style are characterized by elements awarding points in the standing position, as
well as in the clinch.
Comparison of styles in the multivariate model indicates that the Freestyle abounds
the greater dynamics and the number of implemented technical and tactical
elements during the fight, in relation to the Greco-Roman style, in which
morphological indicators are more manifested.
Using binary logistic regression analysis method the match outcome predicting
models were established showing remarkable predictive ability. Of the analyzed
variables the most significant contribution to the positive outcome of the match in the
Greco-Roman style had indicators of competitive efficiency in defense and attack on
mr Mladen Kecman - doktorska disertacija
v
the ground. In Freestyle wrestlers the most significant contribution had the efficiency
in performance techniques in a standing position, then conquer points in the clinch
and eventually the effectiveness of performance techniques on the ground.