Strane direktne investicije i nivo tržišne koncentracije u zemljama Jugoistočne Evrope

Abstract

Priliv stranog kapitala u formi stranih direktnih investicija (SDI), značajno se povećao poslednjih decenija, posebno u zemljama u razvoju. Razlog za to leži u rastućim zahtevima za investicijama kako bi se ubrzao ekonomski rast i ostvarila makroekonomska stabilnost. Transnacionalne kompanije (TNK), kao ključni nociosi SDI i lideri u oblasti naprednih tehnologija i automatizacije utiču na napredak zemalja domaćina menjajujući pri tome i njihovu tržišnu strukturu. Imajući u vidu značaj SDI kako za razvoj nacionalnih ekonomija tako i za nivo tržišne koncentracije i uslova konkurencije, predmet istraživanja doktorske disertacije je usmeren na ispitivanje uticaja priliva SDI na nivo tržišne koncentracije i posredno konkurenciju na tržištima zemalja Jugoistočne Evrope (JIE). Prema tome, osnovni cilj istraživanja je da se na bazi relevantne literature i sprovedenog istraživanja sagleda efekat koje SDI imaju na nivo tržišne koncentracije i uslove konkurencije u zemlji domaćinu. Na osnovu relevantne teorijsko-metodološke i empirijske analize, ispitana je statistička značajnost i povezanost priliva SDI i nivoa koncentracije, pri čemu se kao bitne determinante nivoa tržišne koncentracije razmatraju i veličina tržišta i stopa rasta tržišta. Takođe, ispitano je kakav je uticaj SDI na tržišta država JIE sa posebnim osvrtom na države članice EU i one koje to nisu. U fokusu istraživanja uticaja SDI na nivo tržišne koncentraciju su dva tržišta: tržište duvana i duvanskih proizvoda i tržište mobilne telefonije. Na ovaj način obuhvaćen je proizvodni i uslužni sektor nacionalnih ekonomija koje su predmet analize. Primenom odgovarajućih statističko-ekonometrijskih metoda dobijeni su rezultati validnog nivoa statističke signifikantnosti. Na primeru zemalja JIE pokazano je da SDI imaju statistički značajan uticaj na nivo tržišne koncentracije u zemljama JIE na tržištu mobilne telefonije i na tržištu duvanskih proizvoda i na taj način na uslove konkurencije u njima u dugom roku, dok taj efekat ne postoji u kratkom roku. Pored toga, utvrđeno je da je priliv SDI u kratkom roku smanjio nivo tržišne koncentracije samo na tržištu mobilne telefonije zemalja JIE koje su članice EU, dok kod zemalja koje nisu članice EU ovaj efekat ne postoji. Strane kompanije na tržištu mobilne telefonije i duvana i duvanskih proizvoda zemalja JIE su uglavnom na tržišta ovih zemalja ulazile putem merdžera i akvizicija i putem procesa privatizacije, a mali broj SDI su bile greenfield investicije. Ocenjeni efekti SDI na nivo tržišne koncentracije na posmatranim tržištima ukazuju na to da sa povećanjem SDI dolazi do povećanja nivoa tržišne koncentracije, što znači smanjenje konkurencije na posmatranim tržištima u dugom roku. To znači da politika privlačenja SDI nije bila adekvatna i nije delovala u pravcu poboljšanja uslova konkurencije na tržištu zemalja JIE. Na primer, u većini zemalja JIE na tržištu duvana i duvanskih proizvoda domaće kompanije su prestale da postoje, ili su preuzete od stranih kompanija. To znači da dobro koncipirana politika privlanjenja SDI, kakva nije bila u zemljama JIE (posebno onim koje nisu članice EU), može smanjiti negativan i povećati pozitivan uticaj SDI na uslove konkurencije, što nije bio slučaj kod analiziranih država zbog neadekvatne politike privlačenja SDI. Doprinos doktorske disertacije se ogleda u boljem razumevanju načina na koji SDI utiču na nivo tržišne koncentracije i uslove konkurencije u zemljama domaćinima SDI, posebno u zemljama koje su članice EU i zemljama koje to nisu, i u činjenici da dobijeni rezultati daju odgovarajuće zaključke koji se mogu iskoristiti za buduća istraživanja uticaja SDI na nivo tržišne koncentracije s obzirom na to da radi o relativno neistraženoj povezanosti navedenih varijabli.

The inflow of foreign capital as a foreign direct investment (FDI) has increased significantly in recent decades, especially in developing countries. The reason for this lies in the growing demand for investment to accelerate economic growth and achieve macroeconomic stability. Transnational corporations (TNCs), as key FDI carriers and leaders in advanced technologies and automation, are influencing the progress of host countries by changing their market structure. Since the FDI is important for developing national economies, the market concentration and competition conditions, the subject of the doctoral dissertation is focused on examining the impact of FDI inflows on market concentration and competition in Southeast European (SEE) markets. Therefore, the main goal of the research is to examine the effects that FDI has on the level of market concentration and conditions of competition in the host country, based on the relevant literature and the conducted research. The statistical significance and relationship between FDI inflows and concentration levels were examined based on relevant theoretical-methodological and empirical analysis. Market size and market growth rates were also considered important determinants of market concentration levels. Also, the impact of FDI on SEE countries' markets were examined, with special reference to EU member states and those that are not. The focus of the research is the impact of FDI on the level of market concentration in two markets: the market of tobacco and tobacco products and the mobile telephony market. Therefore, the production and service sectors of the national economies are included. By applying appropriate statistical-econometric methods, a reasonable level of statistical significance was obtained. The example of SEE countries shows that FDI has a statistically significant impact on the level of market concentration in SEE countries in the mobile telephony market and tobacco products market and thus on the conditions of competition in them in the long run, while this effect does not exist in the short run. In addition, it was found that FDI inflows in the short term reduced market concentration only in the mobile telephony market of SEE countries that are members of the EU, while in non-EU, this effect does not exist. Foreign companies entered the mobile telephony market and SEE countries' tobacco and tobacco products market mainly through mergers and acquisitions and the privatization process. A small number of FDI were greenfield investments. The estimated effects of FDI on the level of market concentration in the observed markets indicate that with the increase of FDI, there is an increase in market concentration, which means a decrease in competition in the long run. This means that the policy of attracting FDI was not adequate and did not work towards improving the conditions of competition in the SEE markets. For example, in most SEE countries in the tobacco and tobacco products market, domestic companies have been taken over by foreign companies. This means that a well-conceived policy of attracting FDI, which was not the case in SEE countries (especially non-EU countries), can reduce the negative and increase the positive impact of FDI on competition, which was not the case in the analyzed countries due to inadequate FDI attraction policy. The contribution of the doctoral dissertation is reflected in a better understanding of how FDI affects the level of market concentration and conditions of competition in FDI host countries, especially in EU and non-EU countries, and in the fact that the results give appropriate conclusions that can be used for future research on the impact of FDI on the level of market concentration, given that it is a relatively unexplored relationship of these variables. Keywords: level of market concentration, foreign direct investment (FDI), European Union, SouthEast Europe, mobile telephony market, tobacco and tobacco products market.