Teorijsko-empirijska evaluacija nove neoklasične sinteze

Abstract

Apstrakt: Razvoj makroekonomije tokom XX veka obeležen je brojnim teorijskim kontroverzama, revolucijama i kontrarevolucijom. Ipak, pored razlika u polaznim pretpostavkama teorijskih pravaca u okviru dve struje glavnog toka ekonomske misli (kejnzijanske i neoklasične), postojala je tendencija približavanja njihovih stavova u pogledu ključnih ekonomskih pitanja. Ovi procesi doveli su do uspostavljanja neoklasične sinteze, koja je bila aktuelna do sedamdesetih godina prošlog veka. Neoklasična kontrarevolucija, koja je usledila, reafirmisala je neka od predkejnzijanskih shvatanja, ali i podstakla nastanak novog kejnzijanizma. Međutim, tokom devedesetih godina, razlike između suprotstavljenih strana su počele da se smanjuju, što je omogućilo postizanje konsenzusa, koji je, po analogiji sa „starom“ sintezom, nazvan novom neoklasičnom sintezom. U skladu sa tim, predmet istraživanja u doktorskoj disertaciji je evaluacija teorijskog okvira nove neoklasične sinteze, kroz detaljnu elaboraciju njenih konstitutivnih elemenata. Putem sučeljavanja stavova ekonomskih škola glavnog toka, kao i heterodoksnih teorija, ispitano je da li nova neoklasična sinteza predstavlja najviši stupanj u dosadašnjem razvoju makroekonomske teorije. Na bazi analize mikroekonomskih osnova i njihovih makroekonomskih implikacija, kao i pristupa monetarnoj i fiskalnoj politici, u radu se daje ocena validnosti makroekonomskog modela nove sinteze u kontekstu njegovog nastanka, ali i događaja koji su izazvali Veliku Recesiju 2008. godine. Osnovni zaključak je da se efikasnost ovog modela u predstavljanju savremenih privreda i davanju projekcija može održati uvođenjem elemenata vezanih za funkcionisanje finansijskog sektora. Pored teorijske, u radu je izvršena i empirijska analiza ključnih elemenata nove sinteze. Na primeru odabranih razvijenih i tranzicionih zemalja ispitana je održivost teze o odnosu stvarne nezaposlenosti i NAIRU stope, kao i determinantama ove stope. Istražena je i validnost novokejnzijanske Filipsove krive, koja ima značajno mesto u modelu nove neoklasične sinteze. Generalno, rezultati empirijskog istraživanja su potvrdili ispravnost pristupa nove neoklasične sinteze ovim problemima, kao i polaznu pretpostavku da postoje kvalitativne razlike između podobnosti modela nove sinteze za analizu privreda razvijenih i tranzicionih zemalja.

Abstract: The development of macroeconomics during the twentieth century was marked by many theoretical controversies, revolutions, and a counter-revolution. Despite the differences in the starting assumptions of theoretical approaches within two currents of the mainstream of economic thought (Keynesian and neoclassical), there was a tendency to converge their views on key economic issues. These processes have led to the establishment of Neoclassical Synthesis, which was current until the seventies. Neoclassical counterrevolution that followed reaffirmed some of the pre-Keynesian views, but also induced the emergence of the New Keynesianism. However, during the nineties, the differences between the parties began to decrease, which allowed reaching a consensus, which is, by analogy with the "old" synthesis, called the New Neoclassical Synthesis. Accordingly, the subject of the doctoral dissertation research is to evaluate theoretical framework of the New Neoclassical Synthesis, through detailed elaboration of its constituent elements. By confronting the views of mainstream economic schools, as well as heterodox theories, it was investigated whether the New Neoclassical Synthesis represents the highest level of the current development in macroeconomic theory. Based on the analysis of microeconomic foundations and their macroeconomic implications, as well as approach to monetary and fiscal policy, the paper assesses the validity of macroeconomic model of the New Synthesis in the context of its creation, but also events that caused the Great Recession of 2008. The main conclusion is that the efficiency of this model in presenting modern economies and projecting can be maintained by introducing elements related to financial sector functioning. In addition to theoretical analysis, the key elements of the New Synthesis were also empirically analyzed. The subject of empirical investigation was viability of the thesis on the relationship between actual unemployment and the NAIRU rate, as well as determinants of the rate, in the case of selected developed and transition countries. The validity of the New-Keynesian Phillips Curve, which has a significant place in the model of the New Neoclassical Synthesis, was analyzed as well. Overall, the results of empirical research have confirmed the accuracy of the New Neoclassical Synthesis approach to these issues, as well as the initial assumption that there are qualitative differences between suitability of the New Synthesis Model for analyzing economies of developed and transition countries.