Procena rizika od suficita i deficita vode namelioracionom području

Abstract

Učestale smene veoma vlažnih i izuzetno sušnih perioda mogu prouzrokovati značajne negativne posledice na poljoprivredu, životnu sredinu, ekonomiju i na društvo u celini. Strogi zahtevi poljoprivredne proizvodnje i specifičnosti agroklimatskih uslova i samog područja Vojvodine čine ga veoma vulnerabilnim na pojavu viška ili manjka vode. Jasnije sagledavanje vremenske i prostorne pojave viška i manjka vode i procena rizika od njihove pojave moglo bi dovesti do preduzimanja odgovarajućih mera pripreme i ublažavanja negativnih posledica i pre pojave hazardnog događaja. U ovom radu su kreirane metodologije na osnovu kojih su izvršene procene rizika od suficita i deficita vode na melioracionom području Vojvodine. Procene rizika dobijene su kombinacijom procena ranjivosti i procena hazarda, a baziraju se na identifikaciji ključnih faktora koji utiču na pojavu suficita i deficita vode, na njihovoj analizi i adekvatnom vrednovanju i uz korišćenje geografskog informacionog sistema. Ključni faktori su odabrani na osnovu njihovog uticaja na samu pojavu ili na ublažavanje efekata suše ili pojave viška vode, na osnovu dostupnosti podataka i na osnovu istraživanja brojnih autora. Vrednovanje faktora ranjivosti je izvršeno objektivnom metodom entropije. Analize hazarda su izvršene savremenim hidrometeorološkim stohastičkim metodama koje sveobuhvatno sagledavaju opasnosti od pojave suše ili viška vode. Rezultati procena ranjivosti, hazarda i rizika su dobijene korišćenjem geografskog informacionog sistema u vidu karata. Metodologije na osnovu kojih su u ovom radu sprovedene procene rizika od suficita i deficita vode na melioracionom području Vojvodine, omogućavaju stvaranje uslova za podizanje pripravnosti na pojavu ekstremnih hidrometeoroloških događaja, unapređenje planiranja meliorativnih mera kao i izbor i donošenje optimalnijih odluka vezanih za upravljanje i ulaganje u meliorativne sisteme, a sve u skladu sa načelima i principima održivog razvoja poljoprivrede, vodoprivrede i melioracija.

Frequent changes of very dry and wet periods can cause significant adverse effects on agriculture, environment, economy and the whole society. Strict requirements of agricultural production and special characteristics of agro-climatic conditions of the Vojvodina region makes it very vulnerable to the occurrences of excess water or drought. A clearer understanding of the temporal and spatial occurrence of excess water or droughts and the risk assessment of their occurrence could lead to taking appropriate measures of preparedness and mitigation of negative impacts before the onset of hazardous events. In this dissertation, methodologies of risk assessments of water excess and water deficit on the land reclamation areas in Vojvodina were created. Risk assessments were obtained by a combination of vulnerability assessments and hazard assessments, and they are based on the identification of key factors affecting the occurrence of water excess and water deficit, on their analysis and adequate evaluation and by using geographic information systems. Key factors were selected based on their impact on the occurrence or on mitigation of the effects of drought or excess water, on the basis of data availability and based on the research of numerous authors. Valuation of the vulnerability factors is made by objective method of entropy weighting. Hazard analyses were performed by using contemporary hydrometeorological stochastic methods that comprehensively perceive threats of drought or excess water. Assessments of vulnerability, hazard and risk are preformed in GIS and results are presented in a form of thematic maps. Methodologies for risk assessments of water excess and water deficit in land reclamation areas of Vojvodina region, created or modified in this dissertation, allows the creation of conditions for increasing preparedness to extreme hydro-meteorological events, improvement of land reclamation measures planning as well as improvement of selection and decision-making regarding management and investment in the irrigation and drainage systems, all in accordance with the principles of sustainable agriculture, water management and land reclamation.