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Risk analysis methodology in watersupply sistems infrastucture asset management

dc.contributor.advisorIvetić, Marko
dc.contributor.otherIvetić, Marko
dc.contributor.otherPlavšić, Jasna
dc.contributor.otherSavić, Dragan
dc.creatorŠotić, Aleksandar V.
dc.date.accessioned2017-04-17T14:59:13Z
dc.date.available2017-04-17T14:59:13Z
dc.date.issued2016-09-23
dc.identifier.urihttp://eteze.bg.ac.rs/application/showtheses?thesesId=4782
dc.identifier.urihttps://fedorabg.bg.ac.rs/fedora/get/o:15072/bdef:Content/download
dc.identifier.urihttp://vbs.rs/scripts/cobiss?command=DISPLAY&base=70036&RID=513738642
dc.identifier.urihttp://nardus.mpn.gov.rs/123456789/7891
dc.description.abstractCilj naučnog istraživanja je utvrđivanje metodologije analize rizika pri upravlјanju infrastrukturnim sredstvima vodovodnih sistema, kao doprinos naučnom rešavanju unapređenja donošenja odluka pri upravlјanju složenim komunalnim sistemima. Osnovna hipoteza je da funkcionisanje i upravlјanje vodovodnim sistemom mora da bude plansko, da uklјuči sve zainteresovane strane, da vodi računa o životnom veku sredstava, da se zasniva na poznavanju funkcija, performansi i stanja sredstava, kako postojećih tako i cilјnih. Dodatne hipoteze postavljene su kao iskazi koji su proveravani istraživanjem: (h1) Rizik koji se razmatra mora biti sveobuhvatan i ukupan; (h2) Upravljanje sredstvima može da se vrši na odgovarajući način jedino putem upravljanja sistemom kao celinom; i (h3) Metodologija analize rizika treba da bude saglasna prirodi sistema koji se razmatra. Naučne metode koje su primenjene tokom rada na disertaciji su: empirijska istraživanja na izabranom vodovodnom sistemu, modeliranje i analiza rizika, i primena teorije sistema i teorije kontrole. Razmatranje rizika je centralno pitanje procesa odlučivanja. Rizik je delikatan za definisanje i kao društveni konstrukt predmet je psiholoških pristrasnosti. Tradicionalno, rizik se sagledava putem verovatnoća i posledica dešavanja neželjenih događaja. Na ovaj način, analiza rizika ne obuhvata manjkavosti u planiranju, projektovanju i funkcionisanju, niti opisuje indirektne, nelinearne i povratne veze koje karakterišu mnoge neželjene događaje u složenim sistemima. Planovi za bezbednost vode i HACCP, kao tipične metode analize rizika u sektoru voda, prevashodno se tiču zdravstvenih aspekata, ali sve je veći zahtev za širenje domena van zdravstvenih ili strogo tehničkih aspekata, zbog obuhvatanja i organizacionih i ljudskih faktora radi efektivnog upravljanja rizikom. Aktuelno definisanje upravljanja infrastrukturnim sredstvima više je usmereno na samu organizaciju nego na tehnički sistem, u smislu promene filozofije razmišljanja i rada (i) od funkcijskog (ii) preko usmerenog na sredstva (iii) do usmerenog na organizaciju. Ciljevi (organizacije) uvode integraciju pojedinih sredstava u sistem. Cilj je svojstvo organizacije, odnosno sistema, a ne sredstava. Tek vodovodni sistem u celini je okvir za upravljanje pojedinim sredstvima. Rešavanje problematike snabdevanja vodom je suočavanje sa složenim problemima, a jedan način obuhvatanja složenosti je apstrakcija hijerarhije kroz različite formate predstave sistema i znanja. Brojne interesne strane, česte promene unutrašnjih odnosa i uslova okruženja, zahtevaju adaptivnost sistema pri funkcionisanju, a kao takvi, sistemi imaju veću izdržljivost. U skladu sa principima inženjeringa izdržljivosti, otkaz je rezultat (neodgovarajućih) adaptacija potrebnih da bi se nosilo sa trenutim uslovima, a ne kvara. Kod sistema za snabdevanje vodom za piće tehnički delovi sistema čvrsto su integrisani sa lјudskim aktivnostima, pa se mogu smatrati socio-tehničkim sistemima, hijerarhijskim po strukturi...sr
dc.description.abstractThe objective of the research is to determine the methodology of the risk analysis (RA) in the infrastructure asset management (IAM) of water supply systems (WSS), as a contribution to scientifically solve the improvement of decision-making (DM) in the management of complex utility systems. The basic hypothesis is that the operation and management of a WSS has to be planned, to involve all stakeholders, to take into account the assets lifecycle, to be based on the knowledge of functions, performance, and condition of assets, both actual and target. Additional hypotheses are formulated as statements that have been tested by research: (h1) The risk under consideration has to be comprehensive and total; (h2) AM can be done properly only by managing the system as a whole; and (h3) RA methodology should be in accordance with the nature of the respected system. Scientific methods applied during the research are: empirical research on a selected WSS, modeling and RA, and the application of systems and control theory. Consideration of risk is the central issue in the DM process. Risk is delicate to define, and as a social construct, is a subject to psychological biases. Traditionally, risk is perceived by the likelihood and consequences of occurrence of unwanted events. In this way, the RA does not include deficiencies in the planning, design and operation, nor does it describe indirect, non-linear links, and feedbacks that characterize many unwanted events in complex systems. Water Safety Plans and HACCP, as typical methods of RA in the water sector, are primarily concerned with health aspects, but there is an increasing request for the expansion of the domain outside the of health or strictly technical aspects, due to the inclusion of organizational and human factors for effective risk management. Current definitions of IAM are more focused on the organization itself rather than on the technical system, in terms of changes in the philosophy of thinking and operation (i) from functional (ii) through directed to assets (iii) to directed to organization. The objectives (of organization) introduce the integration of individual assets in the system. The objective is the property of organization, that is, the system, not assets. Only the WSS as a whole is a framework for the management of individual assets. Solving the problem of water supply is facing complex issues, and one way to comprise the complexity is the abstraction of hierarchy through various formats of the notion of the system and knowledge. Numerous stakeholders, frequent changes in internal relations and environmental conditions, require the adaptiveness of the system in functioning, and as such, systems have greater resilience. In accordance with the principles of resilience engineering, failure is the result of (inappropriate) adaptations necessary to overcome the current conditions, not of malfunction. In the WSS, technical parts of the system are tightly integrated with human activities, so they can be considered as socio-technical systems, hierarchical in structure...en
dc.formatapplication/pdf
dc.languagesr
dc.publisherУниверзитет у Београду, Грађевински факултетsr
dc.rightsAutorstvo-Nekomercijalno 3.0 Srbija (CC BY-NC 3.0)
dc.sourceУниверзитет у Београдуsr
dc.subjectanaliza rizika; vodovodni sistem; upravljanje infrastrukturnim sredstvima; donošenje odluka.sr
dc.subjectrisk analysis; water supply system; infrastructure asset management; decision makingen
dc.titleMetodologija analize rizika pri upravljanju infrastrukturnim sredstvima vodovodnih sistemasr
dc.title.alternativeRisk analysis methodology in watersupply sistems infrastucture asset managementen
dc.typePhD thesis
dcterms.abstractИветић, Марко; Савић, Драган; Иветић, Марко; Плавшић, Јасна; Шотић, Aлександар В.; Методологија анализе ризика при управљању инфраструктурним средствима водоводних система; Методологија анализе ризика при управљању инфраструктурним средствима водоводних система;


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