Analiza primene kvantitativnih i kvalitativnih metoda za selekciju i optimizaciju portfolia projekata

Abstract

Projektni porfolio menadžment je okvir koji prevodi strategiju u programe i projekte i usaglašava ih sa finansijskim i menadžment kapacitetima kompanije. Da bi strategija organizacije bila uspešno implementirana, jedna od najznačajnijih aktivnosti je izbor projekata koji će se naći u okviru portfolia. Svrha ovog rada je da da novi model koji će omogućiti donosiocima odluka predviđanje uspeha portfolia, na osnovu metoda koje se koriste u selekciji i aktivnosti operativnog i strategijskog planiranja. U radu je sprovedeno istraživanje literature i prikazan veliki broj postojećih metoda i modela koji se koriste u selekciji projekata. Na osnovu identifikovanog problema koji je utvrdio veliki broj autora, a koji se odnosi na nepostojanje fleksibilnog modela koji će podržati proces selekcije, kreiran je model koji prikazuje direktan uticaj izbora metoda na uspeh kreiranja portfolia. Teorijska osnova i empirijski rezultati pokazuju da metode i tehnike za optimizaciju portfolia nisu u dovoljnoj meri formalno uključene u proces selekcije. To se posebno odnosi na našu zemlju i ta činjenica ide u prilog značaju ove disertacije, jer je na jednom mestu sakupljena referentna analiza primena potencijalnih metoda u selekciji i upravljanju projektima u portfoliu domaćih kompanija. Iako postoji veliki broj različitih modela za selekciju i optimizaciju projekata, napravljen je mali pomak u dostizanju integrisanog okvira koji uključuje puno učešće donosilaca odluka. Ovaj rad predstavlja originalni naučni doprinos u oblasti, jer predlaže model koji je moguće koristiti za predviđanje uspeha portfolia, bez obzira na tip projekata, odnosno oblast poslovanja organizacije.

Project portfolio management is a framework that translates the strategy into programmes and projects and adjusts them to the company’s financial and management capacities. One of the most important activities necessary in order that the organizational strategy should be effectively implemented is the selection of projects to be included into the portfolio. The purpose of this paper is to offer a new model that will enable decision makers to anticipate the portfolio success, on the basis of the methods implemented in the selection and the activities of the operational and strategic planning. The paper includes a literature review as well as a review of a large number of existing methods and models implemented in the project selection. On the basis of the problem identified and described by many authors as the lack of a flexible model to support the selection process, a model is created that shows and explains the direct impact of the choice of the method upon the success of portfolio creation. The theoretical basis and the empirical results show that the portfolio optimization methods and techniques are not formally included in the selection process to a sufficient extent. This is especially the case in this country and this fact only stresses the importance of this dissertation, since the reference analysis of the implementation of potential methods in the project selection and management in the portfolios of national companies is compiled and presented in one place. There is a large number of different portfolio selection and optimization models, nevertheless, a slight advance is made here in attaining an integrated framework that involves a full participation of decision makers. This work is a genuine scientific contribution in the area as it proposes a model that can be implemented in anticipating the portfolio success, regardless of the type of the project or the field of organizational business.