Monetarni transmisioni mehanizam

Abstract

Jedno od ključnih pitanja za procjenu monetarnog sistema i monetarne politike u nekoj zemlji predstavlja analiza monetarnog transmisionog mehanizma – veza i kanala putem kojih odluke o monetarnoj politici utiču na likvidnost i prinose na finansijskim trištima, što u konačnom utiče na odluke o potrošnji i investicijama domaćinstava i preduzeća. Transmisioni kanali preko kojih funkcioniše monetarna politika su najčešće kompleksni i međusobno isprepleteni, pri čemu se efekti mjera monetarne politike na ključne makroekonomske varijable, kao što su inflacija i autput, javljaju uz duge i varijabilne vremenske pomake. Njihova identifikacija je značajna zbog toga što oni determinišu najefikasniji set instrumenata monetarne politike, tajming promjena politike, a samim time i osnovna ograničenja sa kojima se centralna banka suočava pri donošenju odluka o monetarnoj politici. U literaturi je identifikovano nekoliko kanala: kanal kamatnih stopa, kanal (ostalih) cijena aktiva, kanal deviznog kursa, kreditni kanal, kanal očekivanja i kanal preuzimanja rizika, pri čemu se nerijetko izdvaja i kanal troškova kao zaseban kanal monetarne transmisije. Jačina pojedinačnih kanala mijenja se tokom vremena, tako da se proces monetarne transmisije mora kontinuirano izučavati i iznova procjenjivati. Značaj svakog od tih kanala zavisi od niza faktora, prije svega od ekonomske, zakonske i finansijske strukture posmatrane zemlje. Monetarni transmisioni mehanizam u zemljama u razvoju i tranziciji može biti u značajnoj mjeri različit od onoga koji se obično opisuje u ekonomijama sa sofisticiranijim finansijskim sistemima. Specifično makroekonomsko i finansijsko okruženje tih zemalja ima značajne implikacije na različite konvencionalne kanale monetarne transmisije. Niz faktora, kao što su slabi institucionalni okviri, umanjena uloga tržišta hartija od vrijednosti, nesavršena konkurencija u bankarskom sektoru, rezultirajući visoki troškovi bankarskih kredita privatnim preduzećima i druge slabosti predstavljaju smetnju funkcionisanju pojedinih tradicionalnih kanala. Dodatno, postoji uvjerenje da monetarna transmisija može biti slaba i nepouzdana u kontekstu tih zemalja, pri čemu su postojeći empirijski dokazi konzistentni sa ovim stanovištem.

One of the key issues in assessing monetary system and monetary policy in an economy is the analysis of the monetary transmission mechanism – links and channels through which monetary policy decisions influence liquidity and returns in financial markets, and ultimately spending and investment decisions of households and enterprises. The transmission channels through which monetary policy operates are often complex and intertwined, while the effects of monetary policy measures on key macroeconomic variables, such as inflation and output, appear with long and variable time lags. Their identification is significant because they determine the most efficient set of monetary policy instruments, the timing of monetary policy changes, and thus the main limitations a central bank is facing in making monetary policy decisions. Several channels have been identified in the literature: interest rate channel, (other) assets prices channel, exchange rate channel, credit channel, expectations channel and risk taking channel, while the cost channel is often singled out as a separate channel of the monetary transmission. The strength of individual channels changes through time so the process of the monetary transmission has to be continuously analyzed and repeatedly assessed. The significance of those channels depends on several factors, primarily on economic, legal and financial structure of the observed economy. Monetary transmission mechanism in developing and transitional economies may to a significant degree be different from that often depicted in economies with more sophisticated financial systems. The specific macroeconomic and financial environment of those economies has significant implications on different conventional channels of monetary transmission. Various factors, such as weak institutional frameworks, diminished role of securities market, imperfect competition in the banking sector, resulting high costs of bank credits to private enterprises and other weaknesses impede the functioning of individual traditional channels. Additionally, there is belief that the monetary transmission can be weak and unreliable in the context of those countries, while the existing empirical evidence is consistent with this view. Improving capabilities to quantify specific links in the monetary transmission mechanism that xiv operates in individual developing and transitional countries requires opening of the „black box“ of monetary transmission in those countries.