Transmisioni mehanizam monetarne politike u zemljama istočne i jugoistočne Evrope, sa posebnim osvrtom na Srbiju

Abstract

Dinamične promene u privredi i finansijskom sistemu utiču na razvoj monetarne politike i njenih instrumenata. Transmisioni mehanizam ima ulogu spone između pojedinih odluka monetarnih vlasti i sektora privrede i stanovništva. Delovanje i efikasnost transmisionog mehanizma monetarne politike zavisi od niza faktora koji su karakteristični za pojedinačnu zemlju. Ti faktori uključuju strukturu privrede i finansijskog sistema, kao okvira delovanja monetarne politike. Strukturni faktori određuju i koji kanal transmisionog mehanizma može da ima najveći značaj i koji može da ima veoma malo ili skoro nikakvo dejstvo. Pored toga, izbor vodećeg instrumenta pomoću kojeg monetarna politika deluje na željene realne varijable zavisi i od odabira strategije monetarne politike. Evolucija monetarne politike, kako u naprednim ekonomijama tako i u zemljama u razvoju, uticala je na različite pristupe u upravljanju monetarnom politikom. Na osnovu dosadašnjih iskustava, većina posmatranih zemalja odabrale je strategiju ciljanja inflacije gde bi glavni instrument trebalo da bude referentna kamatna stopa putem koje se kroz više faza deluje na odluke o potrošnji privrede i stanovništva. Međutim, da bi se uspešno primenjivao ovaj instrument neophodno je i razvijeno finansijsko tržište u svim njegovima segmentima. Kako je dosadašnje iskustvo pokazalo, sa jedne strane dinamičan razvoj finansijskih inovacija ometa nesmetano funkcionisanje transmisionog mehanizma, dok opet sa druge strane, nedovoljno razvijen finansijski sistem takođe ometa kanale delovanja monetarne politike. Empirijska analiza u ovoj doktorskog disertaciji fokusirana je na zemlje koje su prošle period tranzicije kao nove članice EU i Srbiju. Koristeći ekonometrijski model vektorske autoregresije analizira se efikasnost transmisionog mehanizma u režimu ciljanja inflacije. Na taj način moguće je utvrditi koji kanal ima najveći uticaj u sistemu transmisionog mehanizma. Na osnovu komparativne analize mogu se sagledati okolnosti pod kojima pojedini kanali imaju veću ili manju efikasnost, a samim tim i dati preporuke za delotvornije vođenje monetarne politike.

Dynamic changes in economy and financial system affect the development of monetary policy and instruments. Transmission mechanism represents a link between decisions of monetary authorities and corporate and household sector. The influence and efficiency of monetary policy transmission mechanism depends of number of factors that characterize certain country. Those factors include structure of economy and financial system, as well as operational framework of monetary policy. Structural factors determine the channels of monetary policy with strongest influence and those with minor or almost none influence. Besides, the choice of the leading instrument through which monetary policy affect the targeted variables depend on the chosen monetary policy strategy. Evolution of monetary policy in advanced economies as well as in developing economies caused the different approaches in conducting the monetary policy. Based on past experience, most of the analyzed countries have chosen the inflation targeting monetary strategy, where the main instrument of monetary policy should be key interest rate which affects the spending decisions of corporate and household sector. However, in order to successfully implement this instrument, the financial market has to be developed in all of its segments. As experience through global financial crisis showed us, the dynamic development of financial innovations disturb the functioning of transmission mechanism, as well as undeveloped financial system can jeopardize the effectiveness of monetary policy. Empirical analysis in this doctoral dissertation is focused on countries which successfully finished the transition period and have become the new EU member states and Serbia. By using Vector Autoregression econometric model it is analyzed the efficiency of transmission mechanism in inflation targeting regime. With this tool it is possible to recognize which channel has the strongest influence in transmission mechanism system. Based on comparative analysis, we could perceive the circumstances in which certain channels have more or less efficiency, and accordingly give recommendations for more effective conduct of monetary policy.