Efekti privatizacije na performanse industrijskih preduzeća u Srbiji
Effects of privatization on the performance of industrial enterprises in Serbia
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Cilj disertacije je da se ispita efekat privatizacije na performanse industrijskih preduzeća, s
posebnim naglaskom na stvaranje bruto dodate vrednosti i rentabilitet privrede Srbije u
periodu 2002-2007. Kraj perioda 2007. je uzet da bi se isključio efekat poremećaja usled
svetske ekonomske krize.
Radi se o nestandardnom pristupu analizi finansijskih izveštaja. Analizom bruto dodate
vrednosti i njene dinamike po svojinskim oblicima, veličini i delatnostima preduzeća ocenjuje
se doprinos privatizovanih preduzeća privrednom rastu, odnosno kretanju produktivnosti,
zaposlenosti i troškova rada na nivou cele privrede. Pri tome, najveća pažnja je posvećena
rezultatima privatizovanih industrijskih preduzeća.
U elaboriranju polaznih hipoteza, odnosno njihovom potvrđivanju ili opovrgavanju korišćene
su sledeće metode naučno-istraživačkog rada: (a) metode analize i sinteze; (b) komparativni
metod u cilju sagledavanja rezultata pojedinih podskupova preduzeća; (c) statistički metodi,
gde je panel a...nalizom pokazano kako su se rezultati svakog od posmatranih svojinskih oblika
u različitim sektorima i oblastima industrije menjali kroz vreme. S druge strane, panel
analizom je i testirana hipoteza da efekti privatizacije na performanse preduzeća značajno
variraju u zavisnosti od njegove veličine, čime se implicitno ocenjuju i efekti modela prodaje
kapitala.
Ukupno uzevši, može se reći da je period 2002-2007. obeležen veoma vidljivom i brzom
promenom vlasničke strukture koja je omogućena Zakonom o privatizaciji iz 2001. godine.
Privatni sektor je bio superioran u pogledu rasta bruto dodate vrednosti, produktivnosti i
niskih troškova rada, ali unutar njega rezultat izvornog privatnog sektora je neuporedivo
bolji od rezultata privatizovanih preduzeća. Privatna preduzeća su najbrže rasla,
apsorbovala višak radne snage i gotovo jedina doprinosila porastu dodate vrednosti u
privredi. Izvorni privatni sektor ima, za razliku od privatizovanih preduzeća, a naročito
preduzeća u državnoj i društvenoj svojini, nadprosečnu produktivnost i najniže troškove rada,
te se može reći da je i pobednik tranzicije.
Privatizovana preduzeća daju skroman doprinos stvaranju bruto dodate vrednosti u Srbiji, a
privatizacija u segmentu ukupne industrije je ispunila očekivanja samo u pojedinim oblastima
prerađivačke industrije. Po najvećem broju posmatranih indikatora u pozitivnom smislu su se
zaključno sa 2007. izdvajala privatizovana preduzeća iz oblasti: (a) proizvodnje proizvoda od
ostalih nemetalnih minerala; (b) proizvodnje duvanskih proizvoda; (c) proizvodnje
prehrambenih proizvoda i pića; (d) proizvodnje osnovnih metala i (e) proizvodnje koksa,
derivata nafte i nuklearnog goriva. S druge strane, najslabije performanse imala su
privatizovana preduzeća iz oblasti: (a) proizvodnje nameštaja; (b) tekstilne industrije i (c)
proizvodnje ostalih saobraćajnih sredstava.
The aim of the dissertation is to research privatization effects on the performance of
industrial companies, with a particular emphasis on the creation of gross value added and
profitability of the Serbian economy in the period 2002-2007. The late 2007 period was taken
in order to exclude the distortion effect caused by the global economic crisis.
It is a non-standard approach to the analysis of financial statements. Through the analysis of
gross value added and the dynamics thereof by ownership forms, size and companies’
activities, contribution of the privatized companies to economic growth, i.e. to movements in
productivity, employment and labor costs on the level of overall economy is assessed.
Thereby, the greatest attention has been paid to the results of privatized industrial companies.
In elaborating the initial hypotheses, i.e. their confirmation or denial, the following scientific
research methods have been used: (a) methods of analysis and synthesis, (b) comparative
method a...imed at evaluating the results of certain subsets of companies, (c) statistical
methods, where a panel analysis disclosed the way in which the results of each of the
observed ownership forms have changed over time in different sectors and branches of the
industry. On the other hand, the panel analysis has also tested the hypothesis according to
which privatization effects on the companies’ performances significantly vary depending on
the company size, whereby the effects of capital sales model have been implicitly assessed.
Generally speaking, it can be said the period 2002-2007 was marked by highly visible and
rapid change of ownership structure that was enabled by the 2001 Privatization Law. The
private sector was superior in terms of gross value added growth, productivity and low labor
costs, but the result of the original private sector within it was highly better than the result of
privatized companies. Private companies reported the fastest growth, absorbed the surplus
labor force and were almost the only ones that contributed to the value added increase in the
economy. Unlike privatized companies, the original private sector, especially companies in
the state and social ownership, reported above-average productivity and the lowest labor
costs, so they can be considered the winners of the transition.
Privatized companies provide modest contribution to the creation of gross value added in
Serbia, and the privatization in the segment of overall industry has met expectations only in
certain branches of manufacturing industry. According to the greatest number of observed
indicators, privatized companies that stood out in the positive sense, including the year 2007,
belonged to the following branches: (a) production of other non-metallic mineral products,
(b) production of tobacco products, (c) production of food products and beverages (d)
production of base metals, and (e) production of coke, refined petroleum products and
nuclear fuel. On the other hand, the worst performance was reported by the privatized
companies from the following branches: (a) production of furniture, (b) textile industry, and
(c) production of other means of transportation.