Diskontna stopa kao faktor procene vrednosti kapitala

Abstract

Diskontna stopa, pri ostalim nepromenjenim uslovima prinosnog modela procene, predstavlja presudan faktor u proceni vrednosti kapitala primenom metode diskontovanja projektovanih neto novčanih tokova. Metod diskontovanja je opšteprihvaćeni metod u najvećem broju zemalja. Nerazvijenost tržišta kapitala u Republici Srbiji, u prvi plan, stavlja obračun diskontne stope metodom „zidanja“, za razliku od razvijenih zemalja u kojima se, najčešće, primenjuje CAPM metod. U radu se analizira uticaj visine diskontne stope na procenjenu vrednost kapitala primenom metode „zidanja” diskontne stope, ali i uticaj različitih vrsta beta koeficijenata i premija za rizik na visinu diskontne stope i procenu vrednosti kapitala. Naime, primena CAPM metode ne podrazumeva napuštanje primene prinosne metode, ali se elementi diskontne stope utvrđuju na bazi tržišnih parametara: sistemskog rizika i visine tržišne premje za rizik. Na ovaj način, smanjuje se subjektivnost procenitelja prilikom izračunavanja diskontne stope, budući da CAPM model polazi od pretpostavke da se specifični rizik preduzeća može anulirati diversifikacijom porftolia. Potreba za procenom vrednosti kapitala korišćenjem diskontne stope „ne gasi se“ završetkom procesa privatizacije, budući da procena može biti zahtevana od strane samih menadžera u preduzeću, potencijalnih investitora, u slučajevima stvaranja poslovnih kombinacija, prilikom prodaje preduzeća i sl. . Raširena primena metode „zidanja“ diskontne stope u Republici Srbiji može dovesti do grešaka u proceni, bilo slučajnih, bilo namernih, što utiče na realnost procenjene vrednosti kapitala. Do grešaka dolazi usled primene neadekvatne stope prinosna na ulaganja bez rizika, premije za rizik ulaganja u zemlju i pogrešnog utvrđivanja specifičnog rizika preduzeća. Poboljšani poslovno-investicioni ambijent u Republici Srbiji zahteva izmenu visine premije za rizik ulaganja u Republiku Srbiju, smanjujući visinu diskontne stope, što rešava problem potcenjene vrednosti kapitala. Pomenuto poboljšanje dovodi do osnivanja sve većeg broja start-up preduzeća, pa se postavlja pitanje procene vrednosti njihovog kapitala, s obzirom na visok nivo rizika od bankrotstva i nelikvidnosti. Dodatni rizik smanjuje projektovane neto novčane tokove i uvećava tržišni rizik, što povećava visinu diskontne stope i smanjuje projektovanu vrednost kapitala mladih preduzeća.

Discount rate, business valuation, discounting net cash flows valuation, method of “building” discount rate, beta coefficient, risk premium, country risk premium of Republic of Serbia, CAPM method, start up companies Abstract (or resume) in the language of the text: The discount rate, in the case of other unchanged conditions of the discounted net cash flow model valuation, is a crucial factor in the valuation of capital using the method of discounting projected net cash flows. The method of discounting is a widely accepted method in most countries. Undeveloped capital market in the Republic of Serbia primarily focuses on calculating the discount rate by the method of "building", as opposed to the developed countries in which the CAPM method is the most commonly applied . The paper analyzes the impact of the discount rate on the estimated value of capital using the method of "building” a discount rate, as well as the impact of different types of beta coefficients and premiums for the risk on the discount rate and capital valuationn. Namely, the CAPM method does not imply the abandonment of the discounting projected net cash flowmethod, but the elements of the discount rate are determined on the basis of market parameters: systematic risk and level of market risk. In this way, the subjectivity of the valuator decreases when calculating the discount rate, since the CAPM model assumes that the specific risk of an enterprise can be neutralized by the diversification of porftolio. The need to estimate the value of capital using the discount rate "do not terminated" by the end of the privatization process, since the evaluation may be required by the managers themselves in the enterprise, potential investors, in cases of creating business combinations, when selling the company, etc. . Expanded use of the method of "building" the discount rate in the Republic of Serbia can lead to estimation errors, whether accidental or intentional, which affects the reality of the estimated value of capital. The mistakes are due to the application of an inadequate risk- free rate, the country risk premimum and the incorrect determination of the specific risk of the enterprise. Improved business and investment environment in the Republic of Serbia requires a change in the amount of the country risk premium in the Republic of Serbia, reducing the discount rate, which solves the problem of underestimation of the value of capital. According to mentioned improving, an increasing number of startup companies are founded, so the question of valaution of their capital is raised, according to the high level of risk of bankruptcy and illiquidity. Additional risk reduces projected net cash flows, increases market risk and increases the discount rate, which reduces the projected value of the capital of the start ups