Razvoj metodološkog koncepta za upravljanje rizikom u sistemu opasnih materija

Abstract

Uvođenjem novih tehnologija raste potreba za dodatnim resursima, što se odražava na permanentni porast broja opasnih materija. Industrijski rizik je interpretiran kroz fenomen fragmentacije procesne opreme, dok su transportni rizici analizirani kroz model očekivanja akcidenata usled iskliznuća voza. Neizvesnost fragmentacione procene se kreće oko 12,5%. Visok procenat neizvesnosti transportnih akcidenata pokazuje da pouzdana procena rizika zahteva primenu naprednih metoda, poput Dempster-Shafer teorije.

Introduction of new technologies creates a growing need for additional resources, which affects the permanent increase in the number of dangerous materials. Industrial risk is interpreted through the phenomenon of process equipment fragmentation, while transport risks are analyzed through the model of accidents expectation caused by train derailment. The fragmentation estimates uncertainty is around 12.5%. A high percentage of uncertainties in transport accidents show that reliable risk assessment requires the use of advanced methods, such as Dempster-Shafer theory.