Утицај монетарне политике на избор валутног режима у двовалутном систему
Monetary policy impact on the choice of currency regime in the dual currency system
Faculty:University of Belgrade, Faculty of Economics
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Keywords:монетарна политика и инструменти, инфлаторно таргетирање, двовалутни систем, евроизација, динаризација, девизни курс, монетарни агрегати; In the selection of targets of the monetary policy, taking into account legal decisions, central bank may decide to target monetary aggregates, targeting exchange rate, inflation targeting and to combine some of the previously mentioned modes. Each elected regime of monetary policy is necessary to harmonize with the exchange rate regime. Adequately chosen exchange rate regime is a necessary, but not sufficient condition for successful economic development of a country. The best set up of the exchange rate system will not give satisfactory results if occurring weaknesses and disorders in domestic economic flows, while on the other hand, the disadvantages in the foreign exchange system can be the causes of such disorders. If from theoretical aspect analyzes the compliance of the objectives of monetary policy and currency regime, it can be recognized the validity of decisions of the monetary authorities in Serbia to implicitly since 2006, and explicitly since 2008 apply inflation targeting as a monetary policy objective, and accordingly choose managed floating exchange rate. Additionally, assumption of implementation inflation targeting is to ensure that the inflation rate is moving in the targeted framework and that the reference rate changes depending on the movement of inflation and inflationary expectations. However, if we examine the practical application of inflation targeting in Serbia, the results are not satisfactory. Inflation rate, since inflation targeting is applied, is usually beyond the set targets, while the reference rate had holded at a high level in comparison with low inflationary expectations. This situation in the monetary system indicates either the option to amendment target or on its change.
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