Unapređenje sistema nacionalnih računa za potrebe vođenja ekonomske politike

Abstract

Sistem nacionalnih računa (SNR) nastao je i više puta unapreĎivan na meĎunarodnom nivou sa ciljem da omogući, izmeĎu ostalog, što potpuniju osnovu za analizu ekonomske politike. Polazeći od činjenice da će se u Srbiji nakon pribliţavanja standardima Evropske unije izraĎivati celokupan SNR, što trenutno nije slučaj, i od teze holandskog autora Bosa da će vlade sve manje koristiti SNR, u radu je ispitano koju ulogu nacionalni računi trenutno imaju u analizi ekonomske politike. Cilj istraţivanja je bio da se utvrde načini unapreĎenja upotrebe nacionalnih računa u Srbiji nakon njegove dopune, po oblastima upotrebe. Korišćenjem postojećih podataka, intervjua i kvantitativne analize, to jest ekonometrijske analize vremenskih serija, utvrĎeno je da se u tri oblasti upotrebe SNR, analizi putem indikatora, analizi tokova sredstava i makroekonometrijskom modeliranju, moţe ostvariti napredak već i sada, a posebno nakon dopune statističke produkcije. Posebno je vaţno da će biti moguće unaprediti makroekonometrijsko modeliranje u Srbiji, što je pokazano na primeru funkcije potrošnje. Komparativna analiza imovinskog efekta u Srbiji, Sloveniji, Češkoj i Holandiji pokazala je da varijabla stambene imovine nije značajna u funkciji potrošnje u Srbiji jer ne dominiraju hipoteke u svojinskoj strukturi stambenog fonda i nema finansijskih inovacija kao u razvijenim zemljama. SNR i njegovo stalno unapreĎivanje je potreban ali ne i dovoljan uslov dobre ekonomske politike. SNRje bio dovoljno razvijen za analizu za potrebe voĎenja ekonomske politike u sprečavanju neravnoteţa koje su u poslednjoj krizi imale udela, ali je tek analiza podataka nacionalnih računa eks-post omogućila unapreĎenje analize putem indikatora i standarda na osnovu kojih se mogu sprečiti neki budući mehurovi i neravnoteţe.

The System of National Accounts (SNA) was designed and has been improved several times on the international level with the aim to provide the best possible complete basis for the economic policy analysis. Starting from the fact that after the transition to the standards of the European Union in Serbia the whole system of national accounts will be compiled, which currently is not the case, and from the thesis of the Dutch author Bos that SNA will be less used by the governments, in this dissertation the current role of the SNA in economic policy analysis has been analyzed. The aim of the research was to establish the ways of improvement in different areas of the use of SNA in Serbia, after its completion. By using the existing data, interview and quantitative i.e. econometric analysis of the time series, it has been concluded that in three areas of the use of SNA - indicator analysis, flow of funds analysis and macroeconometric modeling, the improvement is possible even now, and especially after the completion of statistical production. It is especially important that it will be possible to improve the macroeconomic modeling in Serbia, which has been shown on the example of consumption function. The comparative analysis of the wealth effect in Serbia, Slovenia, Czech Republic and the Netherlands has shown that the housing wealth variable is not significant in consumption function in Serbia, because mortgages are not dominant in the ownership structure of the housing wealth, and there are no financial innovations present, as it is the case in the developed countries. The SNA and its constant improvement is a necessary but not sufficient condition for a good economic policy. The SNA has been developed enough for the economic policy analysis to prevent imbalances which took part in the last crisis, but only the ex post analysis of the SNA data has enabled improvement of the indicator analysis and standards as the basis which may prevent future bubbles and imbalances.